Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises
AbstractAn affine yield curve model is estimated on daily Swiss data 2002–2009. The market price of risk is modelled in terms of proxies for uncertainty, which are estimated from interest rate options. The estimated model generates innovations in the 3-month rate that are similar to external evidence of monetary policy surprises - as well as term premia that are consistent with survey data. The results indicate that a surprise increase in the policy rate gives a reasonably sized decrease (-0.25%) in term premia for longer maturities.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 146 (2010)
Issue (Month): I (March)
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Affine price of risk; interest rate caps; survey data;
Other versions of this item:
- Paul Soderlind, 2009. "Reaction of Swiss Term Premia to Monetary Policy Surprises," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-33, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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