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Instability of return prediction models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  2. Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2022. "Stock return predictability: Evaluation based on interval forecasts," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 363-385, April.
  5. Markus Leippold & Hanlin Yang, 2023. "Mixed‐frequency predictive regressions with parameter learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1955-1972, December.
  6. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2020. "Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  7. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  8. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
  9. Rossi, Barbara & Odendahl, Florens & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "Comparing Forecast Performance with State Dependence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "International stock return predictability under model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
  11. Anisha Ghosh & George M. Constantinides, 2010. "The Predictability of Returns with Regime Shifts in Consumption and Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 16183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Andersen, Torben G. & Varneskov, Rasmus T., 2022. "Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 361-386.
  13. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021. "Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
  14. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
  16. Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
  17. González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017. "Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
  18. Odendahl, Florens & Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2023. "Evaluating forecast performance with state dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  19. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
  20. Gabriel Vasco J. & Alexandre Fernando & Bação Pedro, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio under Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 1-32, December.
  21. Erhard Reschenhofer, 2010. "Forecasting volatility: double averaging and weighted medians," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3/4), pages 317-326.
  22. Shimizu, Kenichi, 2023. "Asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference in linear regression with a structural break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 202-219.
  23. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
  24. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2019. "Structural instability and predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  25. Nuno Silva, 2015. "Time-Varying Stock Return Predictability: The Eurozone Case," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 41, pages 28-38, June.
  26. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
  27. Tom Boot & Andreas Pick, 2017. "A near optimal test for structural breaks when forecasting under square error loss," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-039/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "Can institutions and macroeconomic factors predict stock returns in emerging markets?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 77-95.
  29. Scholz, Michael & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Sperlich, Stefan, 2015. "Nonparametric prediction of stock returns based on yearly data: The long-term view," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 143-155.
  30. Gungor, Sermin & Luger, Richard, 2020. "Small-sample tests for stock return predictability with possibly non-stationary regressors and GARCH-type effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 750-770.
  31. Salisu, Afees A. & Adekunle, Wasiu & Alimi, Wasiu A. & Emmanuel, Zachariah, 2019. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 33-56.
  32. Awijen, Haithem & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Lahouel, Béchir & Khlifi, Foued, 2023. "Machine learning for US cross-industry return predictability under information uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  33. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
  34. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
  35. Smith, Simon C., 2021. "International stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  36. Georgiev, Iliyan & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2018. "Testing for parameter instability in predictive regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 101-118.
  37. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  38. Carlos Carvalho & Jared D. Fisher & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2018. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Multivariate Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models," Working Papers 123, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  39. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
  40. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2022. "Testing for episodic predictability in stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 85-113.
  41. Hui Hong & Fergal O'Brien & James Ryan, 2014. "Inflation And The Subsequent Timing Of The Chinese Stock Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 13-35.
  42. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
  43. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  44. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
  45. Timmermann, Allan, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Boucher, C. & Jasinski, A. & Tokpavi, S., 2023. "Conditional mean reversion of financial ratios and the predictability of returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  47. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
  48. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
  49. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
  50. Daniel Waldenstrom & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Using Markets to Measure Pre-War Threat Assessments: The Nordic Countries facing World War II," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-27, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  51. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
  52. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2022. "Switching Coefficients or Automatic Variable Selection: An Application in Forecasting Commodity Returns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, February.
  53. Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  54. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  55. Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, August.
  56. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009. "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
  57. Ang, Andrew & Kristensen, Dennis, 2012. "Testing conditional factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 132-156.
  58. Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi & Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh, 2016. "Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 10-21.
  59. Daniel Mantilla-García & Vijay Vaidyanathan, 2017. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of uncertain structural changes and sample noise," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 357-391, August.
  60. Casas Villalba, Maria Isabel & Mao, Xiuping & Lopes Moreira Da Veiga, María Helena, 2020. "Adaptative predictability of stock market returns," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 31648, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  61. Russell Davidson & Niels S. Grønborg, 2018. "Time-varying parameters: New test tailored to applications in finance and macroeconomics," CREATES Research Papers 2018-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  62. David G. McMillan, 2017. "Stock return predictability: the role of inflation and threshold dynamics," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 357-375, May.
  63. Chen, Haiqiang & Fang, Ying & Li, Yingxing, 2015. "Estimation And Inference For Varying-Coefficient Models With Nonstationary Regressors Using Penalized Splines," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 753-777, August.
  64. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "An Overview Of Dynamic Model Averaging Techniques In Time‐Series Econometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 566-614, April.
  65. Mwasi Paza Mboya & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2023. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of discrete structural breaks under long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1889-1908, November.
  66. Zongwu Cai & Seong Yeon Chang, 2018. "A New Test In A Predictive Regression with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201811, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2018.
  67. Kirby, Chris, 2019. "The value premium and expected business conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 360-366.
  68. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
  69. Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2016. "Do Combination Forecasts Outperform the Historical Average? Economic and Statistical Evidence," MPRA Paper 71589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  71. Hammerschmid, Regina & Lohre, Harald, 2018. "Regime shifts and stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 138-160.
  72. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  73. Yin, Anwen, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  74. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-80, February.
  75. Chang, Seong Yeon, 2020. "A new test of asset return predictability with an unstable predictor," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  76. Horia – Dumitru CRISTEA & Cecilia – Nicoleta ANIS, 2012. "Sectoral Study of the Correlation Risk – Return for Romanian Companies," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 289-292.
  77. Ghosh, Anisha & Linton, Oliver, 2007. "Consistent estimation of the risk-return tradeoff in the presence of measurement error," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  78. Christian Pierdzioch & Daniel Hartmann, 2013. "Forecasting Eurozone real-estate returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1185-1196, July.
  79. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  80. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
  81. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
  82. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  83. Valeriy Zakamulin & Javier Giner, 2020. "Trend following with momentum versus moving averages: a tale of differences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1007, June.
  84. Waldenström, Daniel & Frey, Bruno S., 2008. "Did nordic countries recognize the gathering storm of World War II? Evidence from the bond markets," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 107-126, April.
  85. Mahdi Moradi & Mehdi Jabbari Nooghabi & Mohammad Mahdi Rounaghi, 2021. "Investigation of fractal market hypothesis and forecasting time series stock returns for Tehran Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 662-678, January.
  86. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  87. McMillan, David G., 2014. "Stock return, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability across markets and time: Implications for stock price movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 90-101.
  88. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  89. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  90. Giulia Dal Pra & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Fabiola Vasile, 2016. "Do Regimes in Excess Stock Return Predictability Create Economic Value? An Out-of-Sample Portfolio Analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1637, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  91. Victoria Atanasov & Stig V. Møller & Richard Priestley, 2020. "Consumption Fluctuations and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1677-1713, June.
  92. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  93. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  94. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu, 2014. "Window Selection for Out-of-Sample Forecasting with Time-Varying Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 10168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  95. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Frey, Christoph & Macedo, Demian N., 2020. "Bayesian sequential stock return prediction through copulas," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  96. Jonathan Iworiso & Spyridon Vrontos, 2020. "On the directional predictability of equity premium using machine learning techniques," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 449-469, April.
  97. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  98. Verdickt, Gertjan, 2020. "Is fertility a leading indicator for stock returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
  99. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  100. Michael Johannes & Arthur Korteweg & Nicholas Polson, 2014. "Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 611-644, April.
  101. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  102. Dorra Zouari & Achraf Ghorbel & Sonia Ghorbel-Zouari & Younes Boujelbène, 2014. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation between liquidity risk factors in Tunisian banks," International Journal of Managerial and Financial Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26.
  103. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  104. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2017. "Predicting international stock returns with conditional price-to-fundamental ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-184.
  105. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  106. Jesùs Gonzalo & Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2017. "Inferring the Predictability Induced by a Persistent Regressor in a Predictive Threshold Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 202-217, April.
  107. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
  108. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  109. David G. McMillan, 2021. "Forecasting sector stock market returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 291-300, July.
  110. Deshui Yu & Yayi Yan, 2023. "Joint dynamics of stock returns and cash flows: A time‐varying present‐value framework," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 513-541, September.
  111. Luo, Shikong & Yan, Xinyan & Yang, Haoyi, 2021. "Let’s take a smooth break: Stock return predictability revisited," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 300-314.
  112. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  113. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Exploiting dependence: Day-ahead volatility forecasting for crude oil and natural gas exchange-traded funds," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 462-473.
  114. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
  115. Tsiakas, Ilias & Li, Jiahan & Zhang, Haibin, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and the state of the economy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-95.
  116. Hollmayr, Josef & Kühl, Michael, 2019. "Learning about banks’ net worth and the slow recovery after the financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  117. Yaein Baek, 2018. "Estimation of a Structural Break Point in Linear Regression Models," Papers 1811.03720, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
  118. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014. "Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 517-553.
  119. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "Is stock return predictability time-varying?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 152-172.
  120. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
  121. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  122. Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Papers 2009.03394, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
  123. Stephan Jank, 2015. "Changes in the Composition of Publicly Traded Firms: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1362-1377, June.
  124. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  125. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  126. Diaz, Juan & Duarte, Diogo & Galindo, Hamilton & Montecinos, Alexis & Truffa, Santiago, 2021. "The importance of large shocks to return predictability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  127. Hui Hong & Zhicun Bian & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2021. "COVID-19 and instability of stock market performance: evidence from the U.S," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
  128. Amit K. Sinha, 2021. "The reliability of geometric Brownian motion forecasts of S&P500 index values," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1444-1462, December.
  129. repec:wyi:journl:002195 is not listed on IDEAS
  130. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
  131. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2018. "A new GARCH model with higher moments for stock return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 93-103.
  132. Hong, Hui & Chen, Naiwei & O’Brien, Fergal & Ryan, James, 2018. "Stock return predictability and model instability: Evidence from mainland China and Hong Kong," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 132-142.
  133. Salisu, Afees A. & Swaray, Raymond & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 153-171.
  134. Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2017. "Dissecting models' forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 294-299.
  135. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Timmermann, Allan, 2012. "Do return prediction models add economic value?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2974-2987.
  136. Yin, Anwen, 2019. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction in the presence of structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  137. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
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  139. Chi‐Hsiou Hung, 2008. "Return Predictability of Higher‐Moment CAPM Market Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7‐8), pages 998-1022, September.
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