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Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models

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Cited by:

  1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  2. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1990. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, October.
  3. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Papers 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
  5. Garrat, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0004, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander, 1984. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 703, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Standard errors of forecasts in dynamic simulation of nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 22657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1983.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Estimating vector autoregressions using methods not based on explicit economic theories," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).
  9. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1982. "Evaluating forecast uncertainty due to errors in estimated coefficients: empirical comparison of alternative methods," MPRA Paper 22559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ray C. Fair & Arnold Zellner (ary), 1992. "The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 133-157.
  11. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
  12. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  14. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1984. "Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty in Econometric Models: The Effect of Alternative Estimators of Maximum Likelihood Covariance Matrix," MPRA Paper 28806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 1995. "Comparing probability forecasts derived from theoretical distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 147-157, March.
  16. Arthur Hsu & Ronald T. Wilcox, 2000. "Stochastic Prediction in Multinomial Logit Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1137-1144, August.
  17. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Weihs, Claus, 1986. "Parametric and nonparametric Monte Carlo estimates of standard errors of forecasts in econometric models," MPRA Paper 29120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
  19. Calzolari, Giorgio & Bianchi, Carlo & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1982. "Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 28846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  22. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Brillet, Jean-Louis, 1987. "Measuring forecast uncertainty : A review with evaluation based on a macro model of the French economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227.
  24. Simes, Richard M, 1988. "Macroeconometric Model Evaluation, with Special Reference to the NIF88 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 29-56, Supplemen.
  25. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy," MPRA Paper 29056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
  27. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
  29. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Cuong Le Van & Pierre Malgrange & Michel Deleau, 1984. "Stabilisation efficace des systèmes économiques en présence d'incertitude : expérimentation avec une maquette du modèle DMS," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(3), pages 507-536.
  31. Mariano, Roberto S, 1985. "Finite-Sample Properties in Stochastic Predictors in Nonlinear Systems : Some Initial Results," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 266, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  32. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
  33. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Stochastic simulation experiments on Model 5 of Bonn University," MPRA Paper 24456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Confidence intervals of forecasts from nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 29025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Phillips, Robert F., 1996. "Forecasting in the presence of large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1581-1608.
  37. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.
  38. Pierre Malgrange & Silvia Mira d'Ercole, 1993. "Erreurs de prévision ex ante et ex post," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 135-138.
  39. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 810, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  40. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
  42. Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
  43. David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  44. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).
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