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Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

Three models of price and wage behavior are estimated and tested in this paper. Model 1 is one in which the long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms of rates of change; and Model 3 is one in which there is no long-run trade-off. The evidence favors Model 1 over Models 2 and 3. The comparison between Models 2 and 3 is inconclusive. The short-run trade-offs are greater for Model 1 than for Models 2 and 3. The fact that Model 3 did not do particularly well is evidence against the Friedman-Phelps proposition of no long-run trade-off.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1377.

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Date of creation: Jun 1984
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Publication status: published as Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1377

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  1. George L. Perry, 1980. "Inflation in Theory and Practice," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 207-260.
  2. Parke, William R, 1982. "An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 81-95, January.
  3. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 480, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1981. "Tobin and Monetarism: A Review Article," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 558-67, June.
  5. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
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