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Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS
[Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to mini-DMS model]

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Author Info

  • Bianchi, Carlo
  • Brillet, Jean-Louis
  • Calzolari, Giorgio

Abstract

This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical foundations of the methods, we shal l analyze sequentially the deterministic bias, the uncertainty (standard error) of forecasts and of policy instruments, trying to look at the information from the point of view of the policy maker.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22565/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22565.

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Date of creation: 1984
Date of revision: 1984
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22565

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Related research

Keywords: Mini-DMS model of France; Stochastic simulation;

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References

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  1. Gustafson, Elizabeth F., 1978. "Testing unstable econometric models for stability : An empirical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-201, October.
  2. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1985. "Asymptotic properties of dynamic multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 24401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Antithetic variates to estimate the simulation bias in non-linear models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 323-328.
  4. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1980. "The One-Period Forecast Errors in Nonlinear Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 201-08, February.
  5. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1981. "Estimating asymptotic standard errors and inconsistencies of impact multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 277-294, August.
  6. Oberhofer, W & Kmenta, J, 1973. "Estimation of Standard Errors of the Characteristic Roots of a Dynamic Econometric Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 171-77, January.
  7. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-78, June.
  8. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1977. "Three-stage least-squares estimation for a system of simultaneous, nonlinear, implicit equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 71-88, January.
  9. James M. Brundy & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1971. "Efficient estimation of simultaneous equations by instrumental variables," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, 1973. "Restricted and Unrestricted Reduced Forms: Asymptotic Distribution and Relative Efficiency," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 119-34, January.
  11. Brundy, James M & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1971. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 207-24, August.
  12. Gill, Leonard & Brissimis, Sophocles N., 1978. "Polynomial operators and the asymptotic distribution of dynamic multipliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 373-384, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1988. "Il problema della coerenza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici non lineari
    [The coherency problem when forecasting with nonlinear econometric models]
    ," MPRA Paper 23904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1988. "A trade-off criterion for evaluating effectiveness and reliability of alternative policy actions," MPRA Paper 23869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1987. "Forecast variance in simultaneous equation models: analytic and Monte Carlo methods," MPRA Paper 24541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1986. "Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments," MPRA Paper 29119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1985. "Effectiveness versus reliability of policy actions under government budget constraint: the case of France," MPRA Paper 29055, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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