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The decision to migrate: A simultaneous decision making approach

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  • Mahmood, Talat
  • Schömann, Klaus
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    Abstract

    Discrete choice models are used to investigate the individual’s choice among a discrete number of alternatives. The characteristics of each alternative, by means of multinomial and nested multinomial models, have been taken into account. Specifically, this study analyses the impact of choice-specific characteristics (economic and socio-political attributes) in a model of choice between different country locations. Individual IT-graduates are assumed to choose a single type of move, stay-home or go-abroad, while simultaneously choosing a country of their choice. We demonstrate that a nested logit model is appropriate on both theoretical and empirical grounds. The sample consists of 1,500 IT-graduates from India. The results show on the one hand a high migration propensity for foreign destinations and on the other hand a quite large number of IT-Graduates who want to stay at home. By comparing the direct elasticities (at branch level) of home with those of foreign destination types we observe that both the economic as well as socio-political factors tend to have a greater impact for the foreign destinations. Based on the cross elasticities values, a location comparison between the destinations Germany and the USA/Canada shows that the magnitude of the values of elasticities are found to be higher for North American countries than for Germany. This suggests that IT-Graduates evaluate the economic as well as the socio-political factors as more important and significantly higher for North American destinations than for Germany. In addition we find strong evidence for a competition between countries with high potentials, with India emerging as an attractive location. -- Mit Hilfe von Modellen für diskrete abhängige Variablen untersuchen wir die individuelle Auswahl aus einer Anzahl von Alternativen bei der Migration. Die Charakteristika der einzelnen Alternativen im Zusammenhang von Multinomialbzw. Nestedmodellen sind berücksichtigt worden. Wir untersuchen den Einfluss von auswahlspezifischen Charaktaristika (ökonomische u. sozio-politische) in einem Modell zur Auswahl zwischen verschiedenen Empfängerländern. ITHochschulabsolventen wählen ausgehend von zwei Alternativmöglichkeiten (Migration oder im Land bleiben), eine Alternative aus und wählen simultan ein bestimmtes Land. Es zeigt sich, dass ein „Nested-Logit-Modell“ sowohl in theoretischer als auch in empirischer Hinsicht für die Untersuchung am besten geeignet ist. Die Stichprobe besteht aus ca. 1500 IT-Hochschulabsolventen aus Indien. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einerseits eine höhere Neigung, ein ausländisches Land zu wählen, und andererseits tendiert eine große Anzahl von IT-Hochschulabsolventen, in der Heimat zu bleiben. Beim Vergleich der Direktelastizitäten für die erste Stufe beobachten wir für beide ökonomische und sozio-politische Faktoren einen höheren Einfluss auf die Entscheidung, ins Ausland zu gehen. Bei einem Standortvergleich zwischen Deutschland und dem klassischen Immigrationsland USA/Canada (basierend auf Kreuzelastizitäten) zeigt sich ferner, dass das Ausmaß der Elastizitätswerte höher für nordamerikanische Länder ist als für Deutschland. Dies bedeutet, dass die ITHochschulabsolventen die ökonomischen und sozio-politischen Faktoren für die nordamerikanischen Länder signifikant höher bewerten als für Deutschland. Zusätzlich finden wir Evidenz für die Existenz von starkem Wettbewerb zwischen Ländern um die IT-Hochschulabsolventen aus Indien, das selbst als ein attraktiver Standort gilt.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation with number SP II 2009-17.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbcin:spii200917

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