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Determinants of sovereign yield spreads during the Euro-crisis: Fundamental factors versus systemic risk

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  • Klose, Jens
  • Weigert, Benjamin

Abstract

The intensity of the Euro-crisis was reflected by significant increases of sovereign bond yields in the troubled countries. This has launched a hot debate whether this increase can solely be attributed to fundamental factors like e.g. rescue programmes, rising budget deficits, deteriorating economic prospects or changes in the rating-status of the country, or whether a part of these growing yields is likely to represent a systemic risk, i.e. that one or more countries will drop out of the European Monetary Union and reintroduce their own national currencies. This empirical analysis explores whether such systemic risk is present in the yield spreads of nine Euro area countries by using a novel market based indicator from the virtual prediction market Intrade. Our empirical results suggest that beside fundamental factors a systemic risk component played a role in determination of sovereign yields. Our empirical measure of the systemic component in sovereign yields can be related to the expected change of the newly introduced national currency. Accordingly to that, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy are expected to depreciate their currency while the others would appreciate after a withdrawal from the Euro area. Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the Euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. (ECB-President Mario Draghi, August 2012) Es gibt fundamentale Zweifel der Märkte an der Sicherheit der Währungsunion. (Bundesbankpräsident Jens Weidmann, July 2012) --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in its series Working Papers with number 07/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:072012

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  1. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2010. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach," Discussion Papers 289, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  2. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
  5. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
  8. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro area – in good times as in bad," Kiel Working Papers 1548, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign spreads in the eurozone: which prospects for a Eurobond?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 231-273, 04.
  10. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Christoph M. Schmidt & Benjammin Weigert, 2013. "Weathering the Crisis and Beyond: Perspectives for the Euro Area," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0409, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2014. "An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in time of crisis: A panel data analysis," Working Papers, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter 2014-04, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.

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