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Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen

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  • Klinger, Sabine
  • Heilemann, Ullrich
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    Abstract

    Ungeachtet der vielfältigen Anstrengungen hat sich die Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen seit den 1970er Jahren nicht verbessert. Deshalb mahnen (manche) Ökonomen "mehr Wettbewerb" unter den Prognoseinstituten an – und hoffen, dass die allokative Effizienz marktlicher Lösungen auch bei Makroprognosen eintritt. Allerdings handelt es sich um sehr spezifische Informationsgüter: Sie ähneln öffentlichen Gütern, ihre Genauigkeit und ihre allgemeine Güte lassen sich schwer messen, aus vergangenen Ergebnissen kann nicht auf den künftigen Erfolg/Misserfolg geschlossen werden. Folgerichtig führt die wettbewerbstheoretische Analyse nicht zu klaren Indizien, dass "mehr Wettbewerb" die Prognosegüte erhöht. Dieses noch vage Ergebnis wird von einer empirischen Untersuchung ausgewählter nationaler Prognosemärkte unterstrichen: Weder die Anzahl der Prognoseinstitute noch das Verhältnis von kommerziellen zu nicht-kommerziellen Prognostikern zeigte einen positiven Einfluss auf die Treffsicherheit. Trotz der Skepsis der Autoren darüber, dass makroökonomische Prognosen zurzeit überhaupt wesentlich verbesserbar wären, werden Vorschläge unterbreitet, wie der Prognosewettbewerb intensiviert werden könnte. -- Despite manifold efforts, accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts has not improved since the 1970s. Therefore, (some) economists demand "more competition" among forecasting institutions, hoping that allocative efficiency of market solutions holds in the field of macroeconomic forecasts, too. However, forecasts are very special information goods: they show some similarities with public goods, their accuracy as well as their general quality is hard to measure, past performance is no guide to future success. Theoretical deliberations do not reveal any clear indications for improvements via "more competition". This result is supported by an empirical analysis of selected national markets for macroeconomic forecasts. Neither the number of forecasters nor the ratio of profit to non-profit institutions showed a positive impact on forecasting accuracy. Though the authors are sceptical that at present macroeconomic forecasts have much room for improvement, they offer some proposals on how to increase competition in this field.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen in its series Technical Reports with number 2005,16.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200516

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    Keywords: empirical macroeconomics; forecasting accuracy; competition;

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