Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts
Abstract
This paper reconciles contradictory findings obtained from forecast evaluations: the existence of systematic errors and the failure to reject rationality in the presence of such errors. Systematic errors in one economic state may offset the opposite types of errors in the other state such that the null of rationality is not rejected. A modified test applied to the Fed forecasts shows that the forecasts were ex post biased.Download Info
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2008-010.Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2008-010
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Related research
Keywords: Greenbook Forecasts; forecast evaluation; systematic errors;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-06-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-06-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2009-06-03 (Forecasting)
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