IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/2174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The effects of international trade on structural change and CO2 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Hübler, Michael
  • Bukin, Eduard
  • Xi, Yuting

Abstract

This article introduces a new econometric model that includes an innovative measure of intersectoral structural change. This model describes the structural convergence (or divergence) of sector share patterns across countries (from the North-South or global perspective) influenced by international trade. The econometric analysis applies panel data estimators with different types of fixed effects to the 2013 and 2016 releases of the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), covering the periods 1995-2009 and 2000-2014. The results show that international trade promotes structural convergence, which is enhanced by sectoral capital intensities. It seems, however, that in this millennium, structural divergence has been fostered by trade-induced specialization in CO2-intensive production.

Suggested Citation

  • Hübler, Michael & Bukin, Eduard & Xi, Yuting, 2020. "The effects of international trade on structural change and CO2 emissions," Kiel Working Papers 2174, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/229165/1/1746390778.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Hübler & Alexander Glas, 2014. "The Energy-Bias of North–South Technology Spillovers: A Global, Bilateral, Bisectoral Trade Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 59-89, May.
    2. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    4. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    5. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-149, January.
    6. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1037-1078.
    7. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    8. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    9. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    10. Cole, Matthew A., 2006. "Does trade liberalization increase national energy use?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 108-112, July.
    11. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
    12. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    13. Karen‐Helene Midelfart & Henry G. Overman & Anthony J. Venables, 2003. "Monetary Union and the Economic Geography of Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 847-868, December.
    14. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    15. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    16. Voigt, Sebastian & De Cian, Enrica & Schymura, Michael & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "Energy intensity developments in 40 major economies: Structural change or technology improvement?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-62.
    17. Li, Fangyi & Song, Zhouying & Liu, Weidong, 2014. "China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 193-202.
    18. Nuno Crespo & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2007. "Integration of CEECs into EU Market: Structural Change and Convergence," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 611-632, September.
    19. Teodora Diana Corsatea & Soeren Lindner & Inaki Arto & Maria Victoria Roman & Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche & Agustin Velezquez Afonso & Antonio F. Amores & Frederik Neuwahl, 2019. "World Input-Output Database Environmental Accounts," JRC Research Reports JRC116234, Joint Research Centre.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    21. Nuno Crespo & Maria Paula Fontoura, 2007. "Integration of CEECs into EU Market: Structural Change and Convergence," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 611-632, September.
    22. Maxwell King & Ping Wu, 1997. "Locally optimal one-sided tests for multiparameter hypotheses," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 131-156.
    23. Yuzo Honda, 1985. "Testing the Error Components Model with Non-Normal Disturbances," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 681-690.
    24. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    25. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    26. Gourieroux, Christian & Holly, Alberto & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Likelihood Ratio Test, Wald Test, and Kuhn-Tucker Test in Linear Models with Inequality Constraints on the Regression Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 63-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Hübler & Eduard Bukin & Yuting Xi, 2022. "The Effects of International Trade on Structural Convergence and CO2 Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 579-604, November.
    2. Michael Hübler & Alexander Glas, 2014. "The Energy-Bias of North–South Technology Spillovers: A Global, Bilateral, Bisectoral Trade Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 59-89, May.
    3. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
    4. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    5. Hübler, Michael, 2009. "Energy saving technology diffusion via FDI and trade: a CGE model of China," Kiel Working Papers 1479, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    7. Krammer, Marius Sorin, 2008. "International R&D spillovers in transition countries: the impact of trade and foreign direct investment," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 446, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2019. "Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7), pages 1994-2025, July.
    9. Dagher, Leila & Bird, Lori & Heeter, Jenny, 2017. "Residential green power demand in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1062-1068.
    10. Bartłomiej Bajan & Aldona Mrówczyńska-Kamińska & Walenty Poczta, 2020. "Economic Energy Efficiency of Food Production Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Hanley, Aoife & Liu, Wan-Hsin & Vaona, Andrea, 2011. "Financial development and innovation in China: Evidence from the provincial data," Kiel Working Papers 1673, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Dohse, Dirk & Vaona, Andrea, 2014. "Start-up complexity and the thickness of regional input markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 424-427.
    13. Huang, Junbing & Hao, Yu & Lei, Hongyan, 2018. "Indigenous versus foreign innovation and energy intensity in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1721-1729.
    14. B. Michael Gilroy & Elmar Lukas & Christian Heimann, 2010. "Welchen Einfluss hat die Anwesenheit von ausländischen und multinationalen Unternehmungen auf die deutschen Exporte?," Working Papers CIE 31, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    15. Muhammad Ali & Uwe Cantner & Ipsita Roy, 2017. "Knowledge Spillovers Through FDI and Trade: The Moderating Role of Quality-Adjusted Human Capital," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & Uwe Cantner (ed.), Foundations of Economic Change, pages 357-391, Springer.
    16. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can China Harness Globalization to Reap Carbon Savings? Modeling International Technology Diffusion in a Multi-region Framework," CAMA Working Papers 2012-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Badi Baltagi & Seuck Song, 2006. "Unbalanced panel data: A survey," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 493-523, October.
    18. Jin, Wei, 2015. "Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modeling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 64-82.
    19. Mollick, André Varella & Cabral, René, 2009. "Productivity effects on Mexican manufacturing employment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 66-81, March.
    20. repec:jss:jstsof:27:i02 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Balado-Naves, Roberto & Baños-Pino, José Francisco & Mayor, Matías, 2023. "Spatial spillovers and world energy intensity convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; international trade; CO2 emissions; macro-econometrics; panel data; WIOD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.