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Using HP Filtered Data for Econometric Analysis : Some Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations

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  • Winker, Peter
  • Meyer, Mark

Abstract

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter has become a widely used tool for detrending integrated time series in applied econometric analysis. Even though the theoretical time series literature sums up an extensive catalogue of severe criticism against an econometric analysis of HP filtered data, the original Hodrick and Prescott (1980, 1997) suggestion to measure the strength of association between (macro-)economic variables by a regression analysis of corresponding HP filtered time series still appears to be popular. A contradictory situation which might be justified only if HP induced distortions were quantitatively negligible in empirical applications. However, this hypothesis can hardly be maintained as the simulation results presented within this paper indicate that HP filtered series give seriously rise to spurious regression results. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Erfurt, Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences in its series Discussion Papers with number 2004,001E.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:erfdps:2004001e

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Web page: http://www.uni-erfurt.de/staatswissenschaften/
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Keywords: HP filter; spurious regression; detrending;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  2. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," Discussion Paper Series 232, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  3. Tilman Brück & Guo Xu, 2011. "Who Gives Aid to Whom and When?: Aid Accelerations, Shocks and Policies," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 49, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
  5. Andreas Löschel & Ulrich Oberndorfer, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 146-162, June.
  6. Marcus Kappler, 2011. "Business Cycle Co-movement and Trade Intensity in the Euro Area: is there a Dynamic Link?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 231(2), pages 247-265, April.
  7. Benjamin R. Auer, 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, September.
  8. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Paper Series 221, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  9. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.

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