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Market fragility and the paradox of the recent stock-bond dissonance

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  • Koulovatianos, Christos
  • Li, Jian
  • Weber, Fabienne

Abstract

After the Lehman-Brothers collapse, the stock index has exceeded its pre-Lehman-Brothers peak by 36% in real terms. Seemingly, markets have been demanding more stocks instead of bonds. Yet, instead of observing higher bond rates, paradoxically, bond rates have been persistently negative after the Lehman-Brothers collapse. To explain this paradox, we suggest that, in the post-Lehman-Brothers period, investors changed their perceptions on disasters, thinking that disasters occur once every 30 years on average, instead of disasters occurring once every 60 years. In our asset-pricing calibration exercise, this rise in perceived market fragility alone can explain the drop in both bond rates and price-dividend ratios observed after the Lehman-Brothers collapse, which indicates that markets mostly demanded bonds instead of stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Koulovatianos, Christos & Li, Jian & Weber, Fabienne, 2017. "Market fragility and the paradox of the recent stock-bond dissonance," CFS Working Paper Series 589, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; disaster risk; price-dividend ratio; bond returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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