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Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns

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  • Francesco Bianchi

Abstract

This paper shows that rare events are important in explaining the cross section of asset returns because of their role in shaping agents' expectations. I reconsider the "bad beta, good beta" ICAPM proposed by Campbell and Vuolteenaho and I point out that the explanatory power of the model relies on including the stock market crash that opened the Great Depression. When using a Markov-switching VAR, a '30s regime is identified. This regime receives a large weight when forming expectations consistent with the ICAPM, suggesting that the way agents think about financial markets is shaped by what happens during extreme circumstances. From a technical point of view, the paper extends the present value decomposition of Campbell and Shiller to allow for Markov-switching dynamics in the law of motion of the state variables. This approach could shed new light on the sensitivity of the present value decomposition methodology to the sample choice.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 10-40.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:10-40

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  1. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 2006. "Rational Inattention: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 158-163, May.
  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2082, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
  8. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006. "A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
  10. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  11. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2009. "Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2009-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 371-89, October.
  13. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  14. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
  15. Chao Wei & Fred Joutz, 2011. "Inflation illusion or no illusion: what did pre- and post-war data say?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1599-1603.
  16. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
  17. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
  18. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  19. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  20. Ghosh, Anisha & Julliard, Christian, 2012. "Can Rare Events Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  23. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
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