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How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA

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Listed:
  • Oinonen, Sami
  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Vilmi, Lauri

Abstract

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational expectations. Both rolling regressions and state-space models are employed. The results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We also provide evidence that the impact of the output gap on inflation has increased in recent years. Overall, diminished inflation persistence emphasizes the role of credible monetary policy in inflation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Oinonen, Sami & Paloviita, Maritta & Vilmi, Lauri, 2013. "How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2013, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2013_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; Phillips curve; time-varying parameters; survey expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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