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A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market

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Author Info

  • Catarina Figueira

    (Cranfield University)

  • John Glen

    (Cranfield University)

  • Joseph Nellis

    (Cranfield University)

Abstract

The UK economy has enjoyed an unprecedented period of positive economic growth since the early 1990s. The absence of recession for more than a decade has been accompanied by a sustained decline in the level of mortgage arrears, as reported by major lenders. This paper seeks to examine the factors which have driven the reduction in mortgage arrears and, in doing so, identify those factors which are most likely to cause arrears to increase in the future, should economic conditions deteriorate. The paper employs the Johansen methodology to test for the presence of multiple cointegrating vectors. An error correction model is estimated in order to examine long-run and short-run dynamics in mortgage arrears. In line with previous research concerning the causes of mortgage arrears, the results presented here emphasise the importance of changes in the rate of unemployment, loan–income and debt–service ratios. More importantly, our results highlight the statistical significance of unwithdrawn housing equity as an explanatory variable with respect to mortgage arrears.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/urb/papers/0509/0509006.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0509006.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0509006

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 16
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: mortgage arrears; housing market; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May.
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  8. Woodward, Susan E. & Weicher, John, 1989. "Goring the Wrong Ox: A Defense of the Mortgage Interest Deduction," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(3), pages 301-13, September.
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  11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  12. Patric H. Hendershott & Dr. Gwilyn Pryce & Dr. Michael White, 2002. "Household Leverage and the Deductibility of Home Mortgage Interest: Evidence from UK House Purchasers," NBER Working Papers 9207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
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  17. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1995. "Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate," NBER Working Papers 5078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Roberto Blanco & Ricardo Gimeno, 2012. "Determinants of default ratios in the segment of loans to households in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1210, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Mitropoulos, Atanasios & Zaidi, Rida, 2009. "Relative indicators of default risk among UK residential mortgages," MPRA Paper 19619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0722, Banco de Espa�a.

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