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Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia

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  • Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es determinar si el balance comercial en Colombia guarda una relación de largo plazo con la volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal. Para ello se usaron técnicas propias del estudio de series de tiempo. Concretamente, se empleó la metodología de cointegración ARDL para el período 2001m01 — 2016m09 y los resultados sugieren que las series de volatilidad del tipo de cambio y el balance comercial están cointegradas. Además, para establecer algún tipo de causalidad entre las series, se usó la prueba de Granger. Los resultados indican que la causalidad corre del balance comercial hacia la volatilidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes, 2017. "Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(1), pages 37-58, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000411:015716
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance comercial; tipo de cambio nominal; volatilidad; cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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