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Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Exports: A Case Study for Pakistan

Author

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  • A. Aurangzeb

    (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Canada and Social Policy and Development Centre, Pakistan)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Canada)

  • Asif U. Mohammad

    (Social Policy and Development Centre, Pakistan)

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistan's exports to its major trading partners under the floating exchange rate regime for the period 1985 to 2001. Estimates of the co-integrating relations are obtained using Johansen's technique, and estimates of the short-run dynamics are obtained utilizing an error-correction model. The major findings indicate that increases in exchange rate volatility approximated by the conditional variance of exchange rates exert a significant negative effect upon the volume of exports in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Aurangzeb & Thanasis Stengos & Asif U. Mohammad, 2005. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Exports: A Case Study for Pakistan," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(3), pages 209-222, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:4:y:2005:i:3:p:209-222
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anum Shafique & Mehmood Ul Hassan & Akmal Shahzad & Qazi Muhammad Ali & Muhammad Saqlain, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility And Its Relationship With Macroeconomic Variables In Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(1), pages 121-131, March.
    2. Algieri, Bernardina & Aquino, Antonio & Succurro, Marianna, 2011. "Going “green”: trade specialisation dynamics in the solar photovoltaic sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7275-7283.
    3. Zain Ahmed, 2014. "Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Fluctuation in Pakistan," International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies (IJSSMS), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(2), pages 80-88, June.
    4. Aamir Khan & Aneel Salman & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2019. "Is Exchange Rate Effect Trade Balance in Pakistan? Evidence Based on J- Curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 60-79, December.
    5. Rabia Latif & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2016. "The Determinants of Pakistan Exports of Textile: An Integrated Demand and Supply Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 191-210.
    6. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    7. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    8. Javed Iqbal & Sabahat Aziz & Misbah Nosheen, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 225-255, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH; exchange rate volatility; exports; error-correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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