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Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: The Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data

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  • Pedro M. G. Martins

    (Institute of Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex)

Abstract

This paper uses the cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model to assess the dynamic relationship between foreign aid inflows, public expenditure, revenue and domestic borrowing in Ethiopia. It departs from the existing literature by using a unique quarterly fiscal dataset (1993-2008) and providing new insights into the formulation of testable fiscal hypotheses. The paper also derives and interprets structural shocks and places a strong focus on model specification. The results suggest the presence of three long-run relationships: the government budget constraint, a donor disbursement rule, and a financing trade-off. Foreign aid grants adjust to the level of development spending, which can be seen as an indication of (procyclical) aid conditionality. Moreover, domestic borrowing often compensates for lower levels of revenue and grants, highlighting the cost of aid unpredictability and revenue volatility. The policy implication is that if foreign aid flows are to be made more effective, they should be provided in a predictable and countercyclical fashion in order to smooth exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: The Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Working Paper Series 0910, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0910
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    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/economics/documents/wps9-2010-martins/pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Mascagni, 2014. "Aid and Taxation: Evidence from Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 7314, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. María Lorena Marí Del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2013. "Fiscal dynamics in a dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador," Working Papers 13-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    3. Giulia Mascagni & Emilija Timmis, 2017. "The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1037-1056, July.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm & Brun, Jean-François, 2018. "Is the impact of development aid on government revenue sustainable? An empirical assessment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 311-325.
    5. Abrams M E Tagem, 2017. "Aid, Taxes and Government Spending: A Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panel Analysis," Discussion Papers 2017-02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    6. Giulia Mascagni, 2016. "Aid and Taxation in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1744-1758, December.
    7. Lionel Roger, 2015. "Foreign Aid, Poor Data, and the Fragility of Macroeconomic Inference," Discussion Papers 2015-06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. Morrissey, Oliver, 2015. "Aid and Government Fiscal Behavior: Assessing Recent Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 98-105.
    9. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmané Ouedraogo & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2016. "What Does Aid Do to Fiscal Policy? New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2016/112, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Response; Foreign Aid; Time Series Models; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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