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Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour

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  • Crook, Jonathan
  • Banasik, John

Abstract

We model aggregate delinquency behaviour for consumer credit (including credit card loans and other consumer loans) and for residential real estate loans using data up until 2008. We test for cointegrating relationships and then estimate short run error correction models. We find evidence to support the portfolio explanations of declines in credit quality for consumer and for real estate loans, but support for the reduced stigma explanation was restricted to real estate loans. Evidence supportive of household-level explanations of irrational borrowing and unexpected net income shocks was found for consumer and real estate loans, but evidence of strategic default was restricted to the volume of consumer loans and real estate loans, and not for credit cards. We also found that the error correction model gave forecasts of the volume of delinquent consumer debt which were of an accuracy comparable to that of an ARIMA model.

Suggested Citation

  • Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2012. "Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 145-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:1:p:145-160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.12.002
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    2. Luca Guerrieri & Michelle Welch, 2012. "Can macro variables used in stress testing forecast the performance of banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    4. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Wadud, Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Tang, Xueli, 2020. "Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Scott W. Davis & Kelly L. Haws, 2017. "Don’t Sweat the Big Stuff: Emphasizing Importance Hinders Goal Pursuit for Consumers Low in Dispositional Self-Control Resources," Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 93-104.
    7. Bocchio, Cecilia & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2023. "The impact of macroeconomic scenarios on recurrent delinquency: A stress testing framework of multi-state models for mortgages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1655-1677.
    8. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
    9. Andrew R. Sanderford & George A. Overstreet & Peter A. Beling & Kanshukan Rajaratnam, 2015. "Energy-efficient homes and mortgage risk: crossing the chasm at last?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 157-168, March.
    10. Martin Hauptfleisch, 2019. "Financial Decision-Making Using Data," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2019.
    11. Quaye, Frederick & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2015. "Farmer Credit Delinquency in Southeastern US: Factors and Behavior Prediction," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196914, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
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