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Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate

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Abstract

Evidence is shown, using US foreclosure data by state 1975-93, that periods of high default rates on home mortgages strongly tend to follow real estate price declines or interruptions in real estate price increase. The relation between price decline and foreclosure rates is modelled using a distributed lag. Using this model, holders of residential mortgage portfolios could hedge some of the risk of default by taking positions in futures or options markets for residential real estate prices, were such markets to be established.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d10b/d1098.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1098.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: May 1995
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Housing Research (1996), 7(2): 243-258
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1098

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1991. "Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1006, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
  3. Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1994. "Home Equity Insurance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1074, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. John P. Herzog & James S. Earley, 1970. "Home Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number herz70-1.
  5. Johnston, Elizabeth Tashjian & McConnell, John J, 1989. "Requiem for a Market: An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of a Financial Futures Contract," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23.
  6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
  2. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "Real estate markets and bank distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Robert Buckley & Gulmira Karaguishiyeva & Robert Order & Laura Vecvagare, 2006. "Mortgage credit risk in EU countries: Constraints on exploiting the single currency market," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 13-27, January.
  4. Abel Cadenillas & Robert Elliott & Hong Miao & Zhenyu Wu, 2009. "Risk-Hedging in Real Estate Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 265-285, December.
  5. Berg, Nathan & Gu, Anthony Y. & Lien, Donald, 2007. "Dynamic correlation: A tool hedging house-price risk?," MPRA Paper 26368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509006, EconWPA.
  7. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
  8. Buckley, Robert & Karaguishiyeva, Gulmira & Van Order, Robert & Vecvagare, Laura, 2003. "Comparing mortgage credit risk policies : an options-based approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3047, The World Bank.

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