Quantified beliefs and believed quantities
AbstractThat people estimate quantities, or have beliefs about them, is a daily observable phenomenon. People also quantify their beliefs, at least in theory, by ascribing to them probability numbers. It is shown that quantified beliefs and estimations give rise to the same model, that of a type space, and can therefore be viewed as the two sides of the same coin. We study the axiom that an agent's estimation of his own estimation is correct, showing it to be weaker than the introspection axiom, according to which an agent is certain of his own probabilistic beliefs. It implies, however, that the agent is certain that he is introspective, and it is equivalent to the axioms of averaging and conditioning, which are expressed in terms of probabilistic beliefs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 9805003.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 10 May 1998
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdflatex, postscript; prepared on windows 95; pages: 13
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Harsanyi type spaces; estimation; probabilistic beliefs; ergodic theory;
Other versions of this item:
- C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1998-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-GTH-1998-10-02 (Game Theory)
- NEP-MIC-1998-10-02 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-TID-1998-10-02 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
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