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Looking Backwards, Looking Inwards: Priors and Introspection

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Author Info

  • Dov Samet

    (Faculty of Management Tel Aviv University)

Abstract

The three notions studied here are Bayesian priors, invariant priors and introspection. A prior for an agent is Bayesian, if it agrees with the agent's posterior beliefs when conditioned on them. A prior is invariant, if it is the average, with respect to itself, of the posterior beliefs. Finally, an agent is introspective, if he is certain of his own beliefs. We show that a prior is Bayesian, if and only if it is invariant, and the agent is almost surely introspective. We show how to edogenize priors, and how to express the events that an agent has a Bayesian or invariant prior. Finally, we study properties of the endogenized common prior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 9610007.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 15 Oct 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:9610007

Note: Type of Document - Postscript ; prepared on Unix; pages: 13
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian model; prior; common prior; type spaces; introspection;

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References

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  1. Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
  2. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
  3. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology I: Knowledge," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 263-300.
  4. Heifetz, Aviad & Samet, Dov, 1998. "Topology-Free Typology of Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 324-341, October.
  5. Dov Samet, 1996. "Common Priors and Markov Chains," Game Theory and Information 9610008, EconWPA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1997. "Patterns, Types, and Bayesian Learning," Discussion Papers 1177, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1999. "Bayesian Representation of Stochastic Processes under Learning: de Finetti Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 875-894, July.
  3. Dov Samet, 1997. "On the Triviality of High-Order Probabilistic Beliefs," Game Theory and Information 9705001, EconWPA.

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