Quantified Beliefs and Believed Quantities
AbstractThat people estimate quantities, or have beliefs about them, is a daily observable phenomenon. People also quantify their beliefs, at least in theory, by ascribing to them probability numbers. It is shown that quantified beliefs and estimations give rise to the same model, that of a type space, and can therefore be viewed as the two sides of the same coin. We study the axiom that an agent's estimation of his own estimation is correct, showing it to be weaker than the introspection axiom, according to which an agent is certain of his own probabilistic beliefs. It implies, however, that the agent is certain that he is introspective, and it is equivalent to the axioms of averaging and conditioning, which are expressed in terms of probabilistic beliefs.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.
Volume (Year): 95 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869
Other versions of this item:
- C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology II: Probability," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 301-314.
- Harsanyi, John C, 1995.
"Games with Incomplete Information,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
- Aviad Heifetz & Dov Samet, 1996.
"Topology-Free Typology of Beliefs,"
Game Theory and Information
9609002, EconWPA, revised 17 Sep 1996.
- Samet, Dov, 1998. "Iterated Expectations and Common Priors," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 131-141, July.
- Monderer, Dov & Samet, Dov, 1989. "Approximating common knowledge with common beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 170-190, June.
- Lehrer, Ehud & Samet, Dov, 2011.
"Agreeing to agree,"
Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), May.
- Heifetz, Aviad, 2006. "The positive foundation of the common prior assumption," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 105-120, July.
- Dov Samet, 1999.
"Bayesianism without Learning,"
Game Theory and Information
- Heifetz, A. & Mongin, P., 1998.
"Probability Logic for Type Spaces,"
9825, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- Hellman, Ziv, 2007.
"Iterated Expectations, Compact Spaces and Common Priors,"
3794, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hellman, Ziv, 2011. "Iterated expectations, compact spaces, and common priors," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 163-171, May.
- Ziv Hellman, 2009. "Iterated Expectations, Compact Spaces, and Common Priors," Discussion Paper Series dp522, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
- Pierpaolo Battigalli & Alfredo Di Tillio & Dov Samet, 2011. "Strategies and interactive beliefs in dynamic games," Working Papers 375, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Ziv Hellman, 2010.
"Almost Common Priors,"
Discussion Paper Series
dp560, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.