Persistence Characteristics of the Chinese Stock Markets
AbstractThis paper identifies such fundamental characteristics as the lack of ergodicity, stationarity, and independence, and it identifies the degree of initial persistence of the Chinese stock markets when they were more regulated. The index series are from the Shanghai (SHI) stock market and Shenzhen A-shares (SZI) and B-shares (SZBI) stock markets, before and after the various deregulations and reregulations. Accurate and complete signal processing methods are applied to the complete series and to their sub-periods. The evidence of lack of stationarity and ergodicity can be ascribed to two causes: (1) the initial interventions in these stock markets by the Chinese government by imposing various daily price change limits, and (2) the changing trading styles in the course of the development of these emerging stock markets, after the Chinese government left these equity markets to develop by themselves. By computing the markets' monofractal Hurst exponents (and its accuracy range with a new statistic), using wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA), we identify the markets' subsequent degrees of persistence. The empirical evidence shows that SHI, SZI, and SZBI are moderately persistent with Hurst exponents slightly greater than the Fickian 0.5 of the Geometric Brownian Motion. It also shows that these stock markets were considerably more persistent before the deregulations, but that they now move much more like geometric Brownian motions, i.e., efficiently. Our results also show that the Chinese stock markets are gradually and properly integrating into one Chinese stock market. Our results are consistent with similar empirical findings from Latin American, European, and other Asian emerging financial markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0508008.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 16 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 34
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Long-term dependence; degrees of persistence; Hurst exponent; wavelet multiresolution analysis; Chinese equity markets;
Other versions of this item:
- Los, Cornelis A. & Yu, Bing, 2008. "Persistence characteristics of the Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 64-82.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2005-11-09 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2005-11-09 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2005-11-09 (Risk Management)
- NEP-SEA-2005-11-09 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2005-11-09 (Transition Economics)
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