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Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Returns: International Evidence

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Author Info
Sadique, Shibley
Silvapulle, Param

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Abstract

A lot of recent work has addressed the issue of the presence of long memory components in stock prices because of the controversial implications of such a finding for market efficiency and for martingale models of asset prices used in financial economics and technical trading rules used for forecasting. This paper examines the presence of long memory in the stock returns of seven countries, namely Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, the USA and Australia. The classical and modified rescaled range tests, the semiparametric test proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak, the frequency domain score test proposed by Robinson and its time-domain counterpart derived by Silvapulle, are applied to these returns in order to detect the long memory property. Evidence suggests that the Korean, Malaysian, Singapore and New Zealand stock returns are long-term dependent, indicating that these two markets are not efficient. The results of this study should be useful to regulators, practitioners and derivative market participants, whose success precariously depends on the ability to forecast stock price movements. Copyright @ 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 59-67
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:6:y:2001:i:1:p:59-67

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  1. Cornelis A. Los & Bing Yu, 2005. "Persistence Characteristics of the Chinese Stock Markets," Finance 0508008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mattarocci, Gianluca, 2006. "Market characteristics and chaos dynamics in stock markets: an international comparison," MPRA Paper 4296, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jun Nagayasu, 2003. "The Efficiency of the Japanese Equity Market," IMF Working Papers 03/142, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christos Christodoulou-Volos & Fotios M. Siokis, 2006. "Long range dependence in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1331-1338, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cornelis A. Los & Joanna M. Lipka, 2004. "Long-Term Dependence Characteristics of European Stock Indices," Finance 0409044, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sijing Zong & Cornelis A. Los & Nyonyo Kyaw, 2004. "Persistence Characteristics of Latin American Financial Markets," Finance 0411013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory in a small stock market," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
  9. repec:bep:glecon:6:2007:1:1 is not listed on IDEAS
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