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On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games

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Author Info
Atanasios Mitropoulos (Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg)

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Abstract

The growing literature on learning in games has produced various results on the predictive success of learning theories. These results, however, were based on various methods of comparison. The present paper uses experimental data on a set of four games in order to check on the robustness of rankings among learning rules across measures. We characterise measures along three dimensions: (i) the scoring rule, (ii) the method of comparison, and (iii) the definition of observations and apply all thus defined measures to 12 learning rules. The results show that rankings are indeed sensitive to the measure used. Furthermore, we point at deficiencies of certain measures that have been applied in the past and suggest the use of simulated data when learning rules are supposed to predict realisations of random variables.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/exp/papers/0110/0110001.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Experimental with number 0110001.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 18 Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:0110001

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC - MS-Word; to print on HP A4 size; pages: 30; figures: included
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: learning; experimental games; predictive success; forecasts;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2001. "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities: a bootstrap approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 83-103. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cross, John G, 1973. "A Stochastic Learning Model of Economic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 239-66, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "Learning Under Little Information: An Experiment on Mutual Fate Control," Game Theory and Information 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "Little Information, Efficiency, and Learning - An Experimental Study," Game Theory and Information 0110002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nick Feltovich, 2000. "Reinforcement-Based vs. Belief-Based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric-Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 605-642, May.
  7. Erev, Ido & Bereby-Meyer, Yoella & Roth, Alvin E., 1999. "The effect of adding a constant to all payoffs: experimental investigation, and implications for reinforcement learning models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 111-128, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Selten, Reinhard & Joachim Buchta, 1994. "Experimental Sealed Bid First Price Auctions with Directly Observed Bid Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 270, University of Bonn, Germany.
  10. Sarin, Rajiv & Vahid, Farshid, 1999. "Payoff Assessments without Probabilities: A Simple Dynamic Model of Choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 294-309, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Borgers, Tilman & Sarin, Rajiv, 1997. "Learning Through Reinforcement and Replicator Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-14, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2009. "Pattern recognition and subjective belief learning in repeated mixed strategy games," MPRA Paper 6666, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2008. "Humans versus computer algorithms in repeated mixed strategy games," MPRA Paper 6672, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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