On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games
AbstractThe growing literature on learning in games has produced various results on the predictive success of learning theories. These results, however, were based on various methods of comparison. The present paper uses experimental data on a set of four games in order to check on the robustness of rankings among learning rules across measures. We characterise measures along three dimensions: (i) the scoring rule, (ii) the method of comparison, and (iii) the definition of observations and apply all thus defined measures to 12 learning rules. The results show that rankings are indeed sensitive to the measure used. Furthermore, we point at deficiencies of certain measures that have been applied in the past and suggest the use of simulated data when learning rules are supposed to predict realisations of random variables.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Experimental with number 0110001.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 18 Oct 2001
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Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC - MS-Word; to print on HP A4 size; pages: 30; figures: included
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learning; experimental games; predictive success; forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
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