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Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Daniel Friedman

    (University of California at Los Angeles)

Abstract

This paper studies the use of a scoring rule for the elicitation of forecasts in the form of probability distributions and for the subsequent evaluation of such forecasts. Given a metric (distance function) on a space of probability distributions, a scoring rule is said to be effective if the forecaster's expected score is a strictly decreasing function of the distance between the elicited and "true" distributions. Two simple, well-known rules (the spherical and the quadratic) are shown to be effective with respect to suitable metrics. Examples and a practical application (in Foreign Exchange rate forecasting) are also provided.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.4.447
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 29 (1983)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 447-454

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:4:p:447-454

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Related research

Keywords: forecasting; Delphi technique;

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Cited by:
  1. Tang, Fang-Fang, 2003. "A comparative study on learning in a normal form game experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 385-390, March.
  2. Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1995. "Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 307-319, June.
  3. Atanasios Mitropoulos, 2001. "On the Measurement of the Predictive Success of Learning Theories in Repeated Games," Experimental 0110001, EconWPA.
  4. Plott, Charles R. & Salmon, Timothy, 2002. "The Simultaneous, Ascending Auction: Dynamics of Price Adjustment in Experiments and in the U.K. 3G Spectrum Auction," Working Papers 1155, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  5. Fang, Fang & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B. & Whinston, Andrew B., 2010. "Proper scoring rules with arbitrary value functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1200-1210, November.
  6. Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
  7. D. Johnstone, 2007. "The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 153-203, September.
  8. Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel & Timothy C. Salmon, 2004. "Bidder Preferences Among Auction Institutions," Experimental 0404005, EconWPA.
  9. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel van der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers 1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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