Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts
AbstractThis paper studies the use of a scoring rule for the elicitation of forecasts in the form of probability distributions and for the subsequent evaluation of such forecasts. Given a metric (distance function) on a space of probability distributions, a scoring rule is said to be effective if the forecaster's expected score is a strictly decreasing function of the distance between the elicited and "true" distributions. Two simple, well-known rules (the spherical and the quadratic) are shown to be effective with respect to suitable metrics. Examples and a practical application (in Foreign Exchange rate forecasting) are also provided.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.
Volume (Year): 29 (1983)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
forecasting; Delphi technique;
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