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Scenario Modeling for the Management of International Bond Portfolios

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Author Info
Andrea Beltratti
Andrea Consiglio
Stavros A. Zenios

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Abstract

We address the problem of portfolio management in the international bond markets. Interest rate risk in the local market, exchange rate volatility across markets, and decisions for hedging currency risk are integral parts of this problem. The paper develops a stochastic programming optimization model for integrating these decisions in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures, calibrated using historical observations of volatility and correlation data, generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates. The decision maker's risk tolerance is incorporated through a utility function, and additional views on market outlook can also be incorporated in the form of user specified scenarios. The model prescribes optimal asset allocation among the different markets and determines bond-picking decisions and appropriate hedging ratios. Therefore several interrelated decisions are cast in a common framework, while in the past these issues were addressed separately. Empirical results illustrate the efficacy of the simulation models in capturing the uncertainties of the Salomon Brothers international bond market index.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 98-20.

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Date of creation: May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:98-20

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  1. Vassiadou-Zeniou, Christiana & Zenios, Stavros A., 1996. "Robust optimization models for managing callable bond portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 264-273, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ziobrowski, Brigitte J. & Ziobrowski, Alan J., 1995. "Exchange rate risk and internationally diversified portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 65-81, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Farshid Jamshidian & Yu Zhu, 1996. "Scenario Simulation: Theory and methodology (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Vladislav Kargin, 2002. "On Bond Portfolio Management," Quantitative Finance Papers math/0208130, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2003. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Portfolio Management for a Random Field of Bond Returns," Finance 0310007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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