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Estimation of the Gravity Equation of Bilateral Trade in the Presence of Zero Flows

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G.J.M. Linders ()

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Abstract

The gravity model is the workhorse model to describe and explain variation in bilateral trade empirically. Consistent with both Heckscher-Ohlin models and models of imperfect competition and trade, this versatile model has proven to be very successful, explaining a large part of the variance in trade flows. However, the loglinear model cannot straightforwardly account for the occurrence of zero-valued trade flows between pairs of countries. This paper investigates the various approaches suggested to deal with zero flows. Apart from the option to omit the zero flows from the sample, various extensions of Tobit estimation, truncated regression, probit regression and substitutions for zero flows have been suggested. We argue that the choice of method should be based on both economic and econometric considerations. The sample selection model appears to fit both considerations best. Moreover, we show that the choice of method may matter greatly for the results, especially if the fraction of zero flows in the sample is large. In the end, the results surprisingly suggest that the simplest solution, to omit zero flows from the sample, often leads to acceptable results, although the sample selection model is preferred theoretically and econometrically.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa06p746.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p746

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  1. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1996. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Working Papers 5565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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