IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/8590.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effect of Increasing Human Capital Investment on Economic Growth and Poverty : A Simulation Exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Collin,Matthew Edward
  • Weil,David Nathan

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic responses of income and poverty to increased investment in the human capital of new cohorts of workers, using a quantitative macroeconomic model with realistic demography. Compared to a baseline in which the rate of human capital investment currently observed in every country remains constant, the paper examines two alternative scenarios: one in which each country experiences a rate of growth of human capital investment that is typical of what was observed in the decade ending in 2015, and one in which each country raises human capital investment at a rate corresponding to the 75th percentile of what was observed in the data. In the former, world GDP per capita is 5 percent higher than baseline in the year 2050, while the global rate of $1.90 poverty is 0.7 percentage points lower in that year. In the latter, world GDP per capita is 12 percent higher than baseline in 2050, while the rate of $1.90 poverty drops by 1.4 percentage points. These gains are concentrated in poor countries. The paper argues in the context of our model that investing in people is more cost effective than investing in physical capital as a means to achieve specified income or poverty goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Collin,Matthew Edward & Weil,David Nathan, 2018. "The Effect of Increasing Human Capital Investment on Economic Growth and Poverty : A Simulation Exercise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8590, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/786861537902769850/pdf/WPS8590.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    2. Aart Kraay, 2019. "The World Bank Human Capital Index: A Guide," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 1-33.
    3. Osili, Una Okonkwo & Long, Bridget Terry, 2008. "Does female schooling reduce fertility? Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 57-75, August.
    4. Quamrul H. Ashraf & David N. Weil & Joshua Wilde, 2013. "The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 97-130, March.
    5. Filmer, Deon & Rogers, Halsey & Angrist, Noam & Sabarwal, Shwetlena, 2020. "Learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS): Defining a new macro measure of education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "The Evolution of Income and Fertility Inequalities over the Course of Economic Development: A Human Capital Perspective," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 137-174.
    7. Isaac Ehrlich, 2009. "The Mystery of Human Capital as Engine of Growth, or Why the US Became the Economic Superpower in the 20th Century," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(56), pages 41-93, October -.
    8. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Quamrul Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David Weil, 2008. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," Working Papers 2008-7, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    10. Charles I. Jones, 2003. "Human Capital, Ideas and Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Luigi Paganetto & Edmund S. Phelps (ed.), Finance, Research, Education and Growth, chapter 4, pages 51-74, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Dsouza,Ritika & Gatti,Roberta V. & Kraay,Aart C., 2019. "A Socioeconomic Disaggregation of the World Bank Human Capital Index," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9020, The World Bank.
    12. Quamrul H. Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David N. Weil, 2009. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 157-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2017. "The Effect of Fertility Decline on Economic Growth in Africa: A Macrosimulation Model," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 237-263, May.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    15. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Dorothée Boccanfuso, 2022. "Human Capital Index (HCI) – from uncertainty to robustness of comparisons," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(28), pages 3246-3260, June.
    2. Li, Chao & Sun, Daoming, 2023. "Women’s bargaining power and spending on children’s education: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Huang, Chien-Chung & Jin, Huiying & Zhang, Jieyou & Zheng, Qinqin & Chen, Yafan & Cheung, Shannon & Liu, Chuwei, 2020. "The effects of an innovative e-commerce poverty alleviation platform on Chinese rural laborer skills development and family well-being," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Alma Mačiulytė-Šniukienė & Mindaugas Butkus & Renata Macaitienė & Vida Davidavičienė, 2022. "Infrastructure and EU Regional Convergence: What Policy Implications Does Non-Linearity Bring?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Alicia Girón & Amirreza Kazemikhasragh, 2022. "Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Asia and Africa: Empirical Analysis of Developing and Least Developed Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1433-1443, June.
    6. Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "The Utilization-adjusted Human Capital Index (UHCI)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9375, The World Bank.
    7. Barbara Dañska-Borsiak, 2023. "Human capital convergence in European NUTS 2 regions," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(2), pages 367-392, June.
    8. Natalia P Montoya & Lia C O B Glaz & César C C Abad & Lucas A Pereira & Irineu Loturco, 2020. "What teachers need to know and be able to do: A view from teachers, students, and principals in the Brazilian context," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, September.
    9. Carlos Mendez & Erick Gonzales, 2021. "Human Capital Constraints, Spatial Dependence, and Regionalization in Bolivia: A Spatial Clustering Approach," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 44(87), pages 115-145.
    10. Yasser Razak Hussain & Pranab Mukhopadhyay, 2023. "How Much do Education, Experience, and Social Networks Impact Earnings in India? A Panel Data Analysis Disaggregated by Class, Gender, Caste and Religion," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    11. Nicoleta Valentina Florea & Constantin Aurelian Ionescu & Marinela Daniela Manea & Dan Ioan Topor & Sorinel Capusneanu & Dan Marius Coman & Sorina Geanina Stanescu & Mihaela Denisa Coman, 2023. "Implementing ABC as Cost Management Model for the Human Resources Department: Evidence From a Romanian Entity," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    12. Agasisti, Tommaso & Bertoletti, Alice, 2022. "Higher education and economic growth: A longitudinal study of European regions 2000–2017," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campbell, Susanna G. & Üngör, Murat, 2020. "Revisiting human capital and aggregate income differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-64.
    2. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel, 2018. "Health and economic development since 1900," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 228-237.
    3. Weil, David N., 2014. "Health and Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 3, pages 623-682, Elsevier.
    4. Rodolfo Manuelli & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "AIDS, Human Capital and Development," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 178-193, October.
    5. Moshe Hazan, 2009. "Longevity and Lifetime Labor Supply: Evidence and Implications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(6), pages 1829-1863, November.
    6. Uwe Sunde & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & Armin Falkbriq & David Huffman & Gerrit Meyerheim, 2022. "Patience and Comparative Development [How Large Are Human-capital Externalities? Evidence from Compulsory Schooling Laws]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2806-2840.
    7. Marco Alfò & Lorenzo Carbonari & Giovanni Trovato, 2020. "On the Effects of Taxation on Growth: an Empirical Assessment," CEIS Research Paper 480, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2020.
    8. Paula Bustos & Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi & Joan Monras & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2019. "Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth," Working Papers wp2019_1906, CEMFI.
    9. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    10. Oscar Hernán Cerquera Losada & María de los Ángeles Clavijo Tovar & Carla Yanella Pérez Peña, 2022. "Capital humano y crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica para Suramérica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 41(73), pages 143-167, February.
    11. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Bustos, Paula & Castro-Vincenzi, Juan & Monras, Joan, 2018. "Industrialization without Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    13. Angrist,Noam & Djankov,Simeon & Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou & Patrinos,Harry Anthony, 2019. "Measuring Human Capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8742, The World Bank.
    14. Yasir Khan & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "The Impact of Formal and Informal Institutions on Economic Performance: A Cross-Country Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:130, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    15. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    16. Ma Salinas-Jiménez & Javier Salinas-Jiménez, 2011. "Corruption and total factor productivity: level or growth effects?," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 109-128, August.
    17. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    18. Miao Miao & Jiang Yushi & Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, 2020. "The Impacts of China–Africa Economic Relation on Factor Productivity of African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, June.
    19. Joshua Wilde & B�n�dicte H. Apouey & Gabriel Picone & Joseph Coleman, 2017. "The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 0616, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    20. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W., 2010. "Do all countries grow alike?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 113-127, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.