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How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture ?

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  • Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

The study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4717.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4717

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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Common Property Resource Development; Forestry; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Global Environment Facility;

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References

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  1. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Hassan, Rashid & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "A ricardian analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4599, The World Bank.
  2. Gilbert,Christopher L. & Vines,David (ed.), 2006. "The World Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521029018, October.
  3. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
  4. Robert Mendelsohn & Larry Williams, 2004. "Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 315-333, October.
  5. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4305, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Knox, J.W. & Rodríguez Díaz, J.A. & Nixon, D.J. & Mkhwanazi, M., 2010. "A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 63-72, February.

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