IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwecf/19418.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and the growth rate of money in the long run and the short run

Author

Listed:
  • Díaz-Giménez, Javier
  • Kirkby, Robert

Abstract

Between 1960 and 2013, in the United States the inflation rate was essentially proportional to the growth rate of money in the long run, but that relationship did not hold in the short run. We ask whether three standard monetary model economies from the Cash-in-Advance, the New-Keynesian, and the Search-Money frameworks replicate these two facts. We find that all three deliver the first fact, but that they fail to deliver the second fact, since in all three of them the inflation rate is proportional to the growth rate of money both in the long run and in the short run. This is because in all three model economies the price level responds too quickly to changes in the growth rate of money.

Suggested Citation

  • Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Kirkby, Robert, 2016. "Inflation and the growth rate of money in the long run and the short run," Working Paper Series 19418, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:19418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/19418
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Lucas, Deborah, 1991. "The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 358-384, April.
    2. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    4. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    5. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    7. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-954, August.
    8. Williamson, Stephen D., 2008. "Monetary policy and distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1038-1053, September.
    9. Nason, James M & Cogley, Timothy, 1994. "Testing the Implications of Long-Run Neutrality for Monetary Business Cycle Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages 37-70, Suppl. De.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    11. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    12. Whiteman, Charles H, 1984. "Lucas on the Quantity Theory: Hypothesis Testing without Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 742-749, September.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    15. Allen Head & Lucy Qian Liu & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2012. "Sticky Prices: A New Monetarist Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 939-973, October.
    16. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    18. S. Boragan Aruoba & Randall Wright, 2003. "Search, money, and capital: a neoclassical dichotomy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1085-1117.
    19. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Waller, Christopher J. & Wright, Randall, 2011. "Money and capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 98-116, March.
    20. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2009. "Sluggish Responses of Prices and Inflation to Monetary Shocks in an Inventory Model of Money Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 911-967.
    21. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    22. Telyukova, Irina A. & Visschers, Ludo, 2013. "Precautionary money demand in a business-cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 900-916.
    23. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-128, February.
    24. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    25. Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II," Staff Report 155, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    26. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1991. "Modeling the liquidity effect of a money shock," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 15(Win), pages 3-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Kirkby, Robert, 2016. "Inflation and the growth rate of money in the long run and the short run," Working Paper Series 5047, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Christopher J. Waller & Randall Wright, 2009. "Money and capital: a quantitative analysis," Working Papers 2009-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    4. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Waller, Christopher J. & Wright, Randall, 2011. "Money and capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 98-116, March.
    5. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    6. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    7. Telyukova, Irina A. & Visschers, Ludo, 2009. "Precautionary Demand for Money in a Monetary Business Cycle Model," MPRA Paper 15622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153, Elsevier.
    9. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    10. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Schabert, 2000. "Open Market Operations as a Monetary Policy Shock Measure in a Quantitative Business Cycle Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 396, CESifo.
    11. Ben Craig & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2008. "Inflation and Welfare: A Search Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 89-119, February.
    12. Telyukova, Irina A. & Visschers, Ludo, 2013. "Precautionary money demand in a business-cycle model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 900-916.
    13. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 71-95, July.
    14. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/j75mfllkr89c8aod1nr586ksc is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 371-398, February.
    17. Zeno Enders, 2020. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Segmented Asset Markets and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 1031-1056.
    18. Miquel Faig & Belén Jerez, 2007. "Precautionary Balances and the Velocity of Circulation of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 843-873, June.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7umo3loae88ks85fddjte9ieal is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Chugh, Sanjay K., 2010. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy when money is essential," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 1618-1647, September.
    21. Roberto Robatto, 2015. "Financial Crises and Systemic Bank Runs in a Dynamic Model of Banking," 2015 Meeting Papers 483, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Blouri, Yashar & Ehrlich, Maximilian V., 2020. "On the optimal design of place-based policies: A structural evaluation of EU regional transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:19418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.