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Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values

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Author Info

  • Asen Ivanov

    ()
    (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

  • Dan Levin

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The Ohio State University)

  • James Peck

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The Ohio State University)

Abstract

We experimentally test an endogenous-timing investment model in which subjects privately observe their cost of investing and a signal correlated with the common investment return. Subjects overinvest, relative to Nash. We separately consider whether subjects draw inferences, in hindsight, and use foresight to delay profitable investment and learn from market activity. In contrast to Nash, cursed equilibrium, and level-k predictions, behavior hardly changes across our experimental treatments. Maximum likelihood estimates are inconsistent with belief-based theories. We offer an explanation in terms of boundedly rational rules of thumb, based on insights about the game, which provides a better fit than QRE.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0801.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Publication status: Forthcoming in American Economic Review
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0801

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Keywords: endogenous timing investment; level-k model; cursed equilibrium; quantal response equilibrium; rules of thumb;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Sotiris Georganas & Paul J. Healy & Roberto A. Weber, 2014. "On the Persistence of Strategic Sophistication," CESifo Working Paper Series 4653, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2012. "Herding, contrarianism and delay in financial market trading," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1020-1037.
  3. Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2008. "Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 868, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Ivanov, Asen & Levin, Dan & Peck, James, 2013. "Behavioral biases in endogenous-timing herding games: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 25-34.
  5. Baddeley, M. & Burke, C. & Schultz, W. & Tobler, P., 2012. "Herding in Financial Behaviour: A Behavioural and Neuroeconomic Analysis of Individual Differences," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1225, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2010. "Behavioral Biases, Informational Externalities, and Efficiency in Endogenous-Timing Herding Games: an Experimental Study," Working Papers 1004, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
  7. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & Muriel Niederle, . "Can Relaxation of Beliefs Rationalize the Winner’s Curse?: An Experimental Study," Working Papers 0803, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. Daniel Carvalho & Luis Santos-Pinto, 2010. "A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Behavior in Endogenous Timing Games," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 10.06, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.

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