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Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing

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Author Info
Park, Andreas (University of Toronto)
Sgroi, Daniel (University of Warwick)

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Abstract

We undertook the first market trading experiments that allowed heterogeneously informed subjects to trade in endogenous time, collecting over 2000 observed trades. Subjects’ decisions were generally in line with the predictions of exogenous-time financial herding theory when that theory is adjusted to allow rational informational herding and contrarianism. While herding and contrarianism did not arise as frequently as predicted by theory, such behavior occurs in a significantly more pronounced manner than in comparable studies with exogenous timing. Types with extreme information traded earliest. Of those with more moderate information, those with signals conducive to contrarianism traded earlier than those with information conducive to herding.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/publications/twerp_868.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 868.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:868

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Related research
Keywords: Herding ; Contrarianism ; Endogenous-time ; Informational Efficiency; Experiments;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2008. "Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values," Working Papers 0801, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kerry Back & Shmuel Baruch, 2004. "Information in Securities Markets: Kyle Meets Glosten and Milgrom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 433-465, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Miguel Costa-Gomes & Vincent Crawford & Bruno Broseta, 1998. "Cognition and Behavior in Normal-Form Games: An Experimental Study," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-22, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andreas Park & Daniel Sgroi, 2008. "When Herding and Contrarianism Foster Market Efficiency: A Financial Trading Experiment," Working Papers tecipa-316, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John A. List, 2007. "Information Cascades: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 151-180, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lones Smith, 2000. "Private Information and Trade Timing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1012-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Daniel Sgroi, 2003. "The Right Choice at the Right Time: A Herding Experiment in Endogenous Time," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 159-180, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Chakraborty, Archishman & Yilmaz, Bilge, 2004. "Informed manipulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 132-152, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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