The Right Choice at the Right Time: A Herding Experiment in Endogenous Time
AbstractHerding describes the phenomenon in decision-making where an economic agent disregards his own private information to follow the actions of his predecessors as in Banerjee (1992). With later decision-makers simply copying earlier decisions their private information cannot be inferred by other decision-makers and will be forever lost. There is some experimental evidence on simple sequential herding of this type in the literature, notably Anderson and Holt (1997). This paper differs by allowing subjects to delay their decision-making in order to benefit from observing others' actions as in more recent herding models such as Chamley and Gale (1994). The results in this paper suggest that subjects will indeed delay when their private information is not sufficiently strong. Despite this ability to wait, as predicted in the theoretical literature, cascades remained ubiquitous and more worrying still, reverse-cascades occurred in which incorrect decisions made by early decision-makers produced informational cascades on the wrong action. In an alternative design, informing subjects that they had made incorrect choices only made matters worse as subjects moved further away from rational behavior. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Experimental Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102888
learning; herding; delay;
Other versions of this item:
- Daniel Sgroi, 2000. "The Right Choice at the Right Time: A Herding Experiment in Endogenous Time," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Sgroi, D., 2000. "The Right Choice at the Right Time: a Herding Experiment in Endogenous Time," Economics Papers 2000-w15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allsopp, L. & Hey, J.D., 1998.
"Two Experiments to Test a Model of Herd Behaviour,"
98-28, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December.
- Camerer, Colin & Weigelt, Keith, 1991. "Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 463-93, October.
- Sgroi, D., 2000.
"Optimizing Information in the Herd: Guinea Pigs, Profit and Welfare,"
2000-w14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Sgroi, Daniel, 2002. "Optimizing Information in the Herd: Guinea Pigs, Profits, and Welfare," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 137-166, April.
- Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
- Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1987. "Rational Models of Irrational Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 137-42, May.
- Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December.
- Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
- repec:fee:wpaper:1102 is not listed on IDEAS
- Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2008.
"Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
868, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Andreas Park & Daniel Sgroi, 2008. "Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing," Working Papers tecipa-341, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Morone, Andrea & Fiore, Annamaria & Sandri, Serena, 2007.
"On the absorbability of herd behaviour and informational cascades: an experimental analysis,"
Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics
15/07, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Morone, Andrea & Fiore, Annamaria & Sandri, Serena, 2008. "On The Absorbability Of Herd Behaviour And Informational Cascades: An Experimental Analysis," MPRA Paper 6884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2009.
"Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1484-1507, September.
- Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2008. "Hindsight, Foresight, and Insight: An Experimental Study of a Small-Market Investment Game with Common and Private Values," Working Papers 0801, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Tao Wang, 2011. "Dynamic Equilibrium Bunching," Working Papers 1291, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Baddeley, M. & Burke, C. & Schultz, W. & Tobler, P., 2012. "Herding in Financial Behaviour: A Behavioural and Neuroeconomic Analysis of Individual Differences," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1225, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003.
"Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis,"
European Financial Management,
European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66.
- Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Spiwoks, Markus & Bizer, Kilian & Hein, Oliver, 2008. "Informational cascades: A mirage?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 193-199, July.
- Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008.
"Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets,"
9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2012.
"Herding, contrarianism and delay in financial market trading,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1020-1037.
- Park, A. & Sgroi, D., 2009. "Herding, Contrarianism and Delay in Financial Market Trading," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0941, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Annamaria Fiore & Andrea Morone, 2005.
"Is playing alone in the darkness sufficient to prevent informational cascades?,"
- Annamaria Fiore & Andrea Morone, 2005. "Is playing alone in the darkness sufficient to prevent informational cascades?," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2005-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Shachat, Jason & Srivinasan, Anand, 2011.
"Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets,"
30308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Hüning, Hendrik, 2013. "A comparison of endogenous and exogenous timing in a social learning experiment," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 167, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- repec:feb:framed:0003 is not listed on IDEAS
- Asen Ivanov & Dan Levin & James Peck, 2010. "Behavioral Biases, Informational Externalities, and Efficiency in Endogenous-Timing Herding Games: an Experimental Study," Working Papers 1004, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.