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Growth of Asian Regional Trade and Income Convergence: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Based on Extended Helpman-Krugman Hypothesis and Flexible Modelling Approach

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In earlier cross-sectional gravity-theory reports (see for example Frankel and Romer, 1999), empirical modelling evidence lends support to the hypothesis of ‘trade causes growth’. In our time-series study on trade-growth causation for a new Asian regionalism (namely ASEAN+3), the hypothesis was also confirmed (Tran Van Hoa, 2002c). A number of benchmark models have also been proposed to find out what causes trade (for a brief survey, see Baier and Bergstrand, 2001), but specific research on income convergence and Asian or more specifically ASEAN+3 trade is still scarce or even non-existent. The paper focuses on studying the growth of ASEAN+3 bilateral trade in the volatile period 1968-2000 and, using an extended Helpman-Krugman (1985) function-free model and World Bank national account and CHELEM trade data, tests the impact of convergence on this trade. Surprisingly, this convergence is found plausible but statistically insignificant and ASEAN output growth and crises are principal determinants of the trade flows between the East Asia 3 and ASEAN.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp03-02.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp03-02

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Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
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Keywords: New Asian Regionalism; Free Trade Agreement; ASEAN; ASEAN+3; Trade and Growth; Crises; Convergence Theory; Gravity Theory; Causality; Economic Modelling; Estimation Methods; Economic and Trade Policy;

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References

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  1. David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman, 1995. "International R&D Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 4444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
  3. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  4. Tran Van Hoa & Chaturvedi, A., 1999. "Performance of the 2SHI Estimator under the Generalised Pitman Nearness Criterion," Economics Working Papers wp99-4, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  5. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
  6. Ullah, Aman & Ullah, Shobha, 1978. "Double k-Class Estimators of Coefficients in Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 705-22, May.
  7. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  8. Van Hoa, Tran, 1992. "Modelling output growth : A new approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284, March.
  9. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  10. Van Hoa, Tran, 1985. "The inadmissibility of the Stein estimator in normal multiple regression equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-42.
  11. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  12. Van Hoa, Tran, 1993. "The mixture properties of the 2SHI estimators in linear regression models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 111-115, January.
  13. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "Improved estimators in some linear errors-in-variables models in finite samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 355-358.
  14. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  15. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "The inadmissibility of the 2SLS estimator in linear structural equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 337-341.
  16. Tran Van Hoa, 2002. "Korea, China and Japan: Their Trade with the World and Its Impact on New Asian Regionalism ASEAN+3," Economics Working Papers wp02-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  17. Van Hoa, Tran & Chaturvedi, A., 1988. "The necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform dominance of the two-stage stein estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-355.
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Cited by:
  1. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  2. Tran Van Hoa, 2004. "Economic and Financial Crisis Management in Asia: A Critical Analysis," Economics Working Papers wp04-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.

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