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Growth of Asian Regional Trade and Income Convergence: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Based on Extended Helpman-Krugman Hypothesis and Flexible Modelling Approach

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Tran Van Hoa () (University of Wollongong)

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Abstract

In earlier cross-sectional gravity-theory reports (see for example Frankel and Romer, 1999), empirical modelling evidence lends support to the hypothesis of ‘trade causes growth’. In our time-series study on trade-growth causation for a new Asian regionalism (namely ASEAN+3), the hypothesis was also confirmed (Tran Van Hoa, 2002c). A number of benchmark models have also been proposed to find out what causes trade (for a brief survey, see Baier and Bergstrand, 2001), but specific research on income convergence and Asian or more specifically ASEAN+3 trade is still scarce or even non-existent. The paper focuses on studying the growth of ASEAN+3 bilateral trade in the volatile period 1968-2000 and, using an extended Helpman-Krugman (1985) function-free model and World Bank national account and CHELEM trade data, tests the impact of convergence on this trade. Surprisingly, this convergence is found plausible but statistically insignificant and ASEAN output growth and crises are principal determinants of the trade flows between the East Asia 3 and ASEAN.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp03-02.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp03-02

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Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-5351
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://www.uow.edu.au/commerce/econ/
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Related research
Keywords: New Asian Regionalism Free Trade Agreement ASEAN ASEAN+3 Trade and Growth Crises Convergence Theory Gravity Theory Causality Economic Modelling Estimation Methods Economic and Trade Policy

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "Improved estimators in some linear errors-in-variables models in finite samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 355-358. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Van Hoa, Tran & Chaturvedi, A., 1988. "The necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform dominance of the two-stage stein estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-355. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ullah, Aman & Ullah, Shobha, 1978. "Double k-Class Estimators of Coefficients in Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 705-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "The inadmissibility of the 2SLS estimator in linear structural equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 337-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Van Hoa, Tran, 1992. "Modelling output growth : A new approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Tran Van Hoa, 2002. "Korea, China and Japan: Their Trade with the World and Its Impact on New Asian Regionalism ASEAN+3," Economics Working Papers wp02-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Van Hoa, Tran, 1985. "The inadmissibility of the Stein estimator in normal multiple regression equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-42. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  16. Tran Van Hoa & Chaturvedi, A., 1999. "Performance of the 2SHI Estimator under the Generalised Pitman Nearness Criterion," Economics Working Papers wp99-4, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Tran Van Hoa, 2004. "Economic and Financial Crisis Management in Asia: A Critical Analysis," Economics Working Papers wp04-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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