The signing of the long-awaited Australia-Thailand free trade agreement (ATFTA) on 19 October 2003 at the APEC Meeting in Bangkok, the emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as ASEAN+1 (China) and ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan), and other bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral FTAs world-wide in recent years pose challenges and, at the same time, offer opportunities for member countries. These FTAs require not only ministerial or senior official dialogues or casual heuristic causation on their acceptability and viability but also serious analytical and historical data-based research into these important developments including their underlying fundamental trade-growth and growth-of-trade causation and impact on trade and closer economic relations. Existing methodologies (eg, CGE/GTAP and gravity theory) for this kind of study have their serious coverage and data restrictions. The paper focuses on the empirics of the ATFTA above by using a novel empirical approach that avoids the CGE/GTAP pitfalls and to provide (if any) supporting evidence, emerging challenges and promising opportunities for Australia and Thailand. Implications of the findings for economic integration, trade policy and prospects for trade and welfare improvement for Australia and Thailand in the medium and long terms will also be discussed.
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number
wp04-12.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
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