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New Asian Regionalism: Evidence of ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement From Extended Gravity Theory and New Modelling Approach

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Author Info
Tran Van Hoa () (University of Wollongong)

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Abstract

The emergence of new Asian regionalisms such as ASEAN+3 (China, Korea and Japan) and the proposed ASEAN+5 (ASEAN+3 plus Australia and New Zealand) and other bilateral, plurilateral and multilateral free trade agreements in recent years requires research into these important developments and their underlying fundamental trade-growth causation. The paper extends the gravity theory to time-series data and applies a new flexible modelling approach to construct a simultaneous-equation model of trade and growth for the ASEAN and the East Asia 3. Using data from the World Bank national accounts and CHELEM regional and international trade over the period 1968-2000, the paper then estimates the model by both standard (OLS and 2SLS) and improved estimation methods to provide superior MSE impact estimates. Implications of the findings for ASEAN+3’s economic integration, trade policy and prospects for trade and welfare improvement for this FTA will also be discussed.

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File URL: http://www.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@econ/documents/doc/uow012143.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia in its series Economics Working Papers with number wp03-03.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp03-03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia
Phone: +612 4221-3663
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://www.uow.edu.au/commerce/econ/
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Related research
Keywords: New Asian Regionalism; Free Trade Agreement; Economic Integration; ASEAN; ASEAN+3; Trade and Growth; Gravity Theory; Causality; Economic Modelling; Estimation Methods; Economic and Trade Policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "Improved estimators in some linear errors-in-variables models in finite samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 355-358. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer & Teresa Cyrus, 1996. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," NBER Working Papers 5732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Van Hoa, Tran & Chaturvedi, A., 1988. "The necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform dominance of the two-stage stein estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-355. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ullah, Aman & Ullah, Shobha, 1978. "Double k-Class Estimators of Coefficients in Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(3), pages 705-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Van Hoa, Tran, 1986. "The inadmissibility of the 2SLS estimator in linear structural equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 337-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "International R&D Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Van Hoa, Tran, 1992. "Modelling output growth : A new approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Tran Van Hoa, 2002. "Korea, China and Japan: Their Trade with the World and Its Impact on New Asian Regionalism ASEAN+3," Economics Working Papers wp02-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Van Hoa, Tran, 1985. "The inadmissibility of the Stein estimator in normal multiple regression equations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-42. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Van Hoa, Tran, 1993. "The mixture properties of the 2SHI estimators in linear regression models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 111-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Harvie, Charles & Lee, Hyun-Hoon, 2002. "New Regionalism in East Asia: How Does It Relate to the East Asian Economic Development Model?," Economics Working Papers wp02-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "Growth of Asian Regional Trade and Income Convergence: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Based on Extended Helpman-Krugman Hypothesis and Flexible Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  20. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  21. Tran Van Hoa & Chaturvedi, A., 1999. "Performance of the 2SHI Estimator under the Generalised Pitman Nearness Criterion," Economics Working Papers wp99-4, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tran Van Hoa, 2003. "Growth of Asian Regional Trade and Income Convergence: Evidence from ASEAN+3 Based on Extended Helpman-Krugman Hypothesis and Flexible Modelling Approach," Economics Working Papers wp03-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tran Van Hoa, 2004. "Economic and Financial Crisis Management in Asia: A Critical Analysis," Economics Working Papers wp04-13, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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