Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: a social network feedback process
AbstractThis paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum. JEL codes:
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia in its series FEUNL Working Paper Series with number wp578.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-01-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2014-01-17 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-NET-2014-01-17 (Network Economics)
- NEP-POL-2014-01-17 (Positive Political Economics)
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