Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: a social network feedback process
AbstractThis paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum. JEL codes:
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia in its series FEUNL Working Paper Series with number wp578.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-01-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2014-01-17 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-NET-2014-01-17 (Network Economics)
- NEP-POL-2014-01-17 (Positive Political Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Herrera, Helios & Martinelli, Cesar, 2006.
"Group formation and voter participation,"
Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society,
Econometric Society, vol. 1(4), pages 461-487, December.
- Helios Herrera & Cesar Martinelli, 2005. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Working Papers, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM 0502, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Helios Herrera & César Martinelli, 2006. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000463, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Helios Herrera & Cesar Martinelli, 2006. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000225, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Cesar Martinelli & Helios Herrera, 2005. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," 2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 687, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Timothy J. Feddersen, 2004. "Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-112, Winter.
- Barry Nalebuff & Ron Shachar, 1999.
"Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 525-547, June.
- Barry Nalebuff & Roni Shachar, 1997. "Follow The Leader: Theory And Evidence On Political Participation," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm57, Yale School of Management.
- Schram, Arthur & Sonnemans, Joep, 1996. "Why people vote: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 417-442, August.
- Stephen Coate & Michael Conlin, 2004. "A Group Rule–Utilitarian Approach to Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1476-1504, December.
- Benny Geys, 2006. "'Rational' Theories of Voter Turnout: A Review," Political Studies Review, Political Studies Association, Political Studies Association, vol. 4(1), pages 16-35.
- Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2007.
"Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries,"
NBER Working Papers
13637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brian Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2010. "Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1110 - 1150.
- Sanjog Misra, 2005. "Generalized Reverse Discrete Choice Models," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 175-200, June.
- Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sean Story).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.