Public Opinion Polls, Voter Turnout, and Welfare: An Experimental Study
AbstractWe experimentally study the impact of public opinion poll releases on voter turnout and welfare in a participation game. We find higher turnout rates when polls inform the electorate about the levels of support for various candidates than when polls are prohibited. Distinguishing between allied and floating voters, our data show that this increase in turnout is entirely due to floating voters. Very high turnout is observed when polls indicate equal support levels for the candidates. This has negative consequences for welfare. Though in aggregate social welfare is hardly affected, majorities benefit more often from polls than minorities. Finally, our comparative static results are better predicted by quantal response (logit) equilibrium than by Bayesian Nash equilibrium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Siena in its series Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena with number 014.
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-11-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2007-11-10 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CDM-2007-11-10 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-EXP-2007-11-10 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-POL-2007-11-10 (Positive Political Economics)
- NEP-SOC-2007-11-10 (Social Norms & Social Capital)
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