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Olympic news and attitudes towards the Olympics: A compositional time-series analysis of how sentiment is affected by events

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  • Terence C. Mills

    (University of Loughborough)

  • Peter Dawson

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Paul Downward

    (University of Loughborough)

Abstract

The Olympic Games are considered to be the most prestigious multi-sport event in the world. However, with growing costs associated with hosting such events against a backdrop of questionable economic benefits, and yet elation that follows from sporting success, a number of studies have started to address its intangible or softer impacts as a justification for the investment. It is well known that sentiment plays a part in the evolving economic valuation of companies through the stock market. What is less well known is how ‘news’ affects the sentiment towards major public investments like the Olympics. In this paper we consider, from the context of the pre-event stage of the 30th Olympiad, the relationship between attitudes towards the Olympics and Olympic-related news; specifically the bad news associated with an increase in the cost of provision, and the good news associated with Team GB’s medal success in 2008. Using a unique data set and an event-study approach that involves compositional time-series analysis, it is found that ‘good’ news affects sentiments much more than ‘bad’ but that the distribution of such sentiment varies widely. For example, a much more pronounced effect of good news is identified for females than males, but ‘bad’ news has less of an impact on the young and older age groups. The paper consequently argues that extreme caution should be exercised in policy pronouncements that are based on such sentiments.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. in its series University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series with number 046.

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Date of creation: May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:uea:aepppr:2012_46

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  1. Georgios Kavetsos & Stefan Szymanski, 2008. "National Wellbeing and International Sports Events," Working Papers 0804, International Association of Sports Economists & North American Association of Sports Economists.
  2. Terence C. Mills, 2009. "Forecasting obesity trends in England," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(1), pages 107-117.
  3. Bernd Süssmuth & Malte Heyne & Wolfgang Maennig, 2009. "Induced Civic Pride and Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 2582, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Forrest, David & Sanz, Ismael & Tena, J.D., 2010. "Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 576-588, July.
  5. Terence Mills, 2010. "Forecasting compositional time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 673-690, June.
  6. J. K. Ashton & B. Gerrard & R. Hudson, 2003. "Economic impact of national sporting success: evidence from the London stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 783-785.
  7. James A Giesecke & John R Madden, 2007. "The Sydney Olympics, seven years on: an ex-post dynamic CGE assessment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-168, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  8. Michael A. Leeds & John M. Mirikitani & Danna Tang, 2009. "Rational Exuberance? An Event Analysis of the 2008 Olympics Announcement," International Journal of Sport Finance, Fitness Information Technology, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, February.
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