Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Morgan Kelly

    (University College of Dublin)

Abstract

Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. House price falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but the unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2007/WP07.01.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200701.

as in new window
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200701

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UCD, Belfield, Dublin 4
Phone: +353-1-7067777
Fax: +353-1-283 0068
Web page: http://www.ucd.ie/economics
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bulow, Jeremy I & Klemperer, Paul, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. David Rae & Paul van den Noord, 2006. "Ireland's Housing Boom: What has Driven it and Have Prices Overshot?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 492, OECD Publishing.
  5. Hogan, Vincent & O'Sullivan, Pat, 2007. "Consumption and House Prices in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 46-61.
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jirka, 2006. "How large is the housing wealth effect? A new approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/35, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. FitzGerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22.
  9. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  10. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207–231.
  2. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2011/Spring 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20121, March.
  4. Philip Lane, 2011. "The Irish Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp356, IIIS.
  5. McCarthy, Colm, 2007. "Owner-Occupied Housing Costs and Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 83-88.
  6. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20122, March.
  7. Gregory Connor & Thomas Flavin & Brian O’Kelly, 2010. "The U.S. and Irish Credit Crises: Their Distinctive Differences and Common Features," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n206-10.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  8. Kennedy, Gerard & McIndoe Calder, Tara, 2011. "The Irish Mortgage Market: Stylised Facts, Negative Equity and Arrears," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
  9. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2012. "The Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(2-Summer).
  10. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20073, March.
  11. Constantin Gurdgiev & Brian M. Lucey & Ciarán Mac an Bhaird & Lorcan Roche-Kelly, 2011. "The Irish Economy: Three Strikes and You’re Out?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(1), pages 19-41, March.
  12. Honohan, Patrick & Donovan, Donal & Gorecki, Paul & Mottiar, Rafique, 2010. "The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy," MPRA Paper 24896, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Talk:Morgan Kelly (economist) in Wikipedia English ne '')

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nicolas Clifton).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.