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On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices

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Author Info
Morgan Kelly (University College of Dublin)

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Abstract

Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. House price falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but the unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/economics/research/papers/2007/WP07.01.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2007
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Paper provided by School Of Economics, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 200701.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200701

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bulow, Jeremy & Klemperer, Paul, 1994. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hogan, Vincent & O'Sullivan, Pat, 2007. "Consumption and House Prices in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 46-61. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fitz Gerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(4). [Downloadable!]
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  1. McCarthy, Colm, 2007. "Owner-Occupied Housing Costs and Bias in the Consumer Price Index," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(3-Autumn), pages 83-88. [Downloadable!]
  2. Honohan, Patrick, 2009. "Resolving Ireland’s Banking Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 207–231. [Downloadable!]
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