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Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020

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  • Zafer Dilaver

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 132.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy, 36(11), 2011, pp. 6686-6696. (Revised Version)
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:132

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Keywords: Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios.;

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References

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  1. Dordonnat, V. & Koopman, S.J. & Ooms, M. & Dessertaine, A. & Collet, J., 2008. "An hourly periodic state space model for modelling French national electricity load," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 566-587.
  2. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
  3. Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 131, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  4. Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2010. "Industrial Electricity Demand for Turkey: A Structural Time Series Analysis," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 129, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  5. Hunt, L.C. & Judge, G. & Ninomiya, Y., 2000. "Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis," Papers 134, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
  6. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  8. John Dimitropoulos & Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge, 2004. "Estimating Underlying Energy Demand Trends using UK Annual Data," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 108, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. Erol Taymaz & Kamil Yılmaz, 2008. "Integration with the Global Economy: The Case of Turkish Automobile and Consumer Electronics Industries," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0801, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  10. Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
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Cited by:
  1. Jian Chai & Shubin Wang & Shouyang Wang & Ju’e Guo, 2012. "Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 577-598, March.

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