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Quantifying the Impact of Exogenous Non-Economic Factors on UK Transport Oil Demand

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  • David C Broadstock

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand (in addition to income, price, and fuel efficiency) by estimating the demand relationship for oil transport for 1960-2007 using the Structural Time Series Model. From this, the relative impact on UK transport oil demand from income, price, and efficiency are quantified. Moreover, the impact of the non-economic factors is also quantified, based on the premise that the estimated stochastic trend represents behavioural responses to changes in socio-economic factors and changes in lifestyles and attitudes. The estimated elasticities for income, price and efficiency are 0.6, -0.1, and -0.3 respectively and it is shown that for efficiency and price the overall contribution is relatively small, whereas the contribution from income and non-economic factors is relatively large. This has important implications for policy makers keen to reduce transport oil consumption and associated emissions, but not willing to reduce the trend rate of economic growth. Taxes and improved efficiency only have a limited impact; hence, a major thrust of policy should perhaps be on educating and informing consumers to persuade them to change their lifestyle and attitudes and thus reduce their consumption through the non-economic instruments route.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 123.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy Policy, 38(3), 2010, pp. 1559-1565. (Revised Version)
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:123

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Keywords: Transport oil demand; Structural Time Series Model; STSM; Underlying Energy Demand Trend; UEDT; Exogenous Non-Economic Factors; ExNEF.;

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References

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  1. Chitnis, Mona & Hunt, Lester C., 2012. "What drives the change in UK household energy expenditure and associated CO2 emissions? Implication and forecast to 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 202-214.
  2. Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  3. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  4. John Dimitropoulos & Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge, 2004. "Estimating Underlying Energy Demand Trends using UK Annual Data," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 108, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  5. Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2003. "Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-118, January.
  6. Pock, Markus, 2010. "Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 54-62, January.
  7. Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
  8. David Bonilla & Timothy Foxon, 2009. "Demand for New Car Fuel Economy in the UK, 1970-2005," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 43(1), pages 55-83, January.
  9. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  10. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
  11. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Brännlund, Runar, 2013. "The effects on energy saving from taxes on motor fuels: The Swedish case," CERE Working Papers 2013:6, CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics.
  2. Ishmael Ackah & Frank Adu & Richard Opoku Takyi, 2014. "On The Demand Dynamics of Electricity in Ghana: Do Exogenous Non-Economic Variables Count?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 149-153.
  3. repec:hhs:slucer:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Besma Talbi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Energy Demand in Tunisia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 452-458.
  5. Chitnis, Mona & Hunt, Lester C., 2012. "What drives the change in UK household energy expenditure and associated CO2 emissions? Implication and forecast to 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 202-214.
  6. David C Broadstock & Eleni Papathanasopoulou, 2013. "Gasoline demand in Greece: the importance of shifts in the underlying energy demand trend," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 141, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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