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ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey

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  • Ediger, Volkan S.
  • Akar, Sertac

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 1701-1708

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:35:y:2007:i:3:p:1701-1708

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References

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  1. Ozturk, Harun Kemal & Ceylan, Halim & Hepbasli, Arif & Utlu, Zafer, 2004. "Estimating petroleum exergy production and consumption using vehicle ownership and GDP based on genetic algorithm approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 289-302, June.
  2. Durmayaz, Ahmet & Kadıoǧlu, Mikdat & Şen, Zekai, 2000. "An application of the degree-hours method to estimate the residential heating energy requirement and fuel consumption in Istanbul," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1245-1256.
  3. Haldenbilen, Soner & Ceylan, Halim, 2005. "Genetic algorithm approach to estimate transport energy demand in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-98, January.
  4. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2004. "Disaggregate energy consumption, employment and income in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 335-344, May.
  5. Sarak, H & Satman, A, 2003. "The degree-day method to estimate the residential heating natural gas consumption in Turkey: a case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 929-939.
  6. Saab, Samer & Badr, Elie & Nasr, George, 2001. "Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14.
  7. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2003. "Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 33-37, January.
  8. Abdel-Aal, R.E. & Al-Garni, A.Z., 1997. "Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using univariate time-series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1059-1069.
  9. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2004. "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 985-994, November.
  10. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özkaymak, Mehmet, 2005. "Turkey's net energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 209-221, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sözen, Adnan, 2009. "Future projection of the energy dependency of Turkey using artificial neural network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4827-4833, November.
  2. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
  3. Karin Kandananond, 2011. "Forecasting Electricity Demand in Thailand with an Artificial Neural Network Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(8), pages 1246-1257, August.
  4. Ünler, Alper, 2008. "Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1937-1944, June.
  5. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2009. "When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 181-189, January.
  6. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
  7. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011. "Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 426-436, May.
  8. Li, Zheng & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2010. "Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 16-38, January.
  9. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Natural gas demand in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
  10. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
  11. Wood, Michael & Alsayegh, Osamah A., 2014. "Impact of oil prices, economic diversification policies and energy conservation programs on the electricity and water demands in Kuwait," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 144-156.
  12. Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2011. "Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 132, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  13. Sozen, Adnan & Gulseven, Zafer & Arcaklioglu, Erol, 2007. "Forecasting based on sectoral energy consumption of GHGs in Turkey and mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6491-6505, December.
  14. Sumer, Kutluk Kagan & Goktas, Ozlem & Hepsag, Aycan, 2009. "The application of seasonal latent variable in forecasting electricity demand as an alternative method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1317-1322, April.
  15. Aydin, Gokhan, 2014. "Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 382-389.
  16. Shafiee, Shahriar & Topal, Erkan, 2008. "An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 775-786, February.
  17. Hossein Iranmanesh & Majid Abdollahzade & Arash Miranian, 2011. "Mid-Term Energy Demand Forecasting by Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Models," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
  18. Ahmet Goncu & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2013. "Forecasting Daily Residential Natural Gas Consumption: A Dynamic Temperature Modelling Approach," Working Papers 2013/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  19. Sozen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol, 2007. "Prediction of net energy consumption based on economic indicators (GNP and GDP) in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4981-4992, October.
  20. Neto, João C. do L. & da Costa Junior, Carlos T. & Bitar, Sandro D.B. & Junior, Walter B., 2011. "Forecasting of energy and diesel consumption and the cost of energy production in isolated electrical systems in the Amazon using a fuzzification process in time series models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4947-4955, September.

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