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A Comparison of Results From MRIO and Interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analyses of the Impacts of a Positive Demand Shock on the ‘CO2 Trade Balance’ Between Scotland and the Rest of the UK

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Author Info

  • Michelle Gilmartin

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Kim Swales

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Karen Turner

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative.To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0808.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:0808

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Keywords: CGE modelling; MRIO; CO2 trade balance; environmental responsibility;

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References

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  1. Turner, Karen & Lenzen, Manfred & Wiedmann, Thomas & Barrett, John, 2007. "Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities -- Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 37-44, April.
  2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
  3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, September.
  4. McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2008. "The CO2 'trade balance' between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input-output analysis with limited data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 662-673, July.
  5. Gillespie, Gary & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Yin, Yan Ping, 1999. "A Computable General Equilibrium Approach to the Ex Post Evaluation of Regional Development Agency Policies," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa260, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Wissema, Wiepke & Dellink, Rob, 2007. "AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 671-683, March.
  7. Montuenga, Victor & Garcia, Inmaculada & Fernandez, Melchor, 2003. "Wage flexibility: evidence from five EU countries based on the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 169-174, February.
  8. Leontief, Wassily, 1970. "Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(3), pages 262-71, August.
  9. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
  10. Heinz Welsch, 1996. "Recycling of carbon/energy taxes and the labor market," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 141-155, September.
  11. Hanley, Nick D. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Turner, Karen, 2006. "The impact of a stimulus to energy efficiency on the economy and the environment: A regional computable general equilibrium analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 161-171.
  12. Lisenkova, Katya & McGregor, Peter & Pappas, Nikos & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen & Wright, Robert E., 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2623, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Munksgaard, Jesper & Pedersen, Klaus Alsted, 2001. "CO2 accounts for open economies: producer or consumer responsibility?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 327-334, March.
  14. Wiedmann, Thomas & Lenzen, Manfred & Turner, Karen & Barrett, John, 2007. "Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities -- Part 2: Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 15-26, February.
  15. Karlsson, Charlie & Johansson, Börje, 2006. "Regional Development and Knowledge," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 76, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  16. Gary Gillespie & Peter Mcgregor & J. Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 2001. "The Displacement and Multiplier Effects of Regional Selective Assistance: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 125-139.
  17. Druckman, A. & Bradley, P. & Papathanasopoulou, E. & Jackson, T., 2008. "Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 594-604, July.
  18. Grant J. Allan & Nicholas D. Hanley & Peter G. Mcgregor & J. Kim Swales & Karen R. Turner, 2007. "Augmenting the Input-Output Framework for 'Common Pool' Resources: Operationalising the Full Leontief Environmental Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Karen Turner & Michelle Gilmartin & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2012. "An integrated IO and CGE approach to analysing changes in environmental trade balances," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(1), pages 161-180, 03.
  2. Michelle Gilmartin & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales & Karen Turner, 2009. "The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances," Working Papers 0903, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

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