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Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lisenkova, Katya

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • McGregor, Peter

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Pappas, Nikos

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Swales, Kim

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Turner, Karen

    (University of Strathclyde)

  • Wright, Robert E.

    (University of Glasgow)

Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisenkova, Katya & McGregor, Peter & Pappas, Nikos & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen & Wright, Robert E., 2007. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2623, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    3. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    4. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
    5. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Pouliakas & Deborah Roberts & Eudokia Balamou & Dimitris Psaltopoulos, 2014. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and Wage Distribution: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of Three European Union Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 318-338, February.
    2. Rusmawati Said & Kamarul Hidayah Abdul Hamid & Nursyazwani Mazlan, 2020. "How Does Immigration Affect Wages and the Unemployment Rate in Malaysia? A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(11), pages 100-100, November.
    3. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Roberts, Deborah & Balamou, Eudokia & Psaltopoulos, Dimitris, 2008. "Modelling the Effects of Immigration on Regional Economic Performance and the Wage Distribution: A CGE Analysis of Three EU Regions," MPRA Paper 14157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michelle Gilmartin & Kim Swales & Karen Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of Results From MRIO and Interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analyses of the Impacts of a Positive Demand Shock on the ‘CO2 Trade Balance’ Between Scotland and the Rest," Working Papers 0808, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Rob Hodgson & Jacques Poot, 2011. "New Zealand Research on the Economic Impacts of Immigration 2005-2010: Synthesis and Research Agenda," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1104, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regional CGE modelling; ageing population; migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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