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Macroeconomic Impact of Ageing Population in Scotland. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Katerina Lisenkova
  • Peter Mcgregor
  • Nikos Pappas
  • Kim Swales
  • Karen Turner
  • Robert Wright

Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Katerina Lisenkova & Peter Mcgregor & Nikos Pappas & Kim Swales & Karen Turner & Robert Wright, 2006. "Macroeconomic Impact of Ageing Population in Scotland. A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa06p432, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p432
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    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa06/papers/432.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    3. Greenwood, Michael J, et al, 1991. "Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1382-1390, December.
    4. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    5. Treyz, George I, et al, 1993. "The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 209-214, May.
    6. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Linda Ferguson & David Learmonth & Peter G McGregor & J Kim Swales & Karen Turner, 2007. "The Impact of the Barnett Formula on the Scottish Economy: Endogenous Population and Variable Formula Proportions," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 39(12), pages 3008-3027, December.

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