Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Inflation, structural change and conflict in post-disinflation Brazil: a structuralist appraisal

Contents:

Author Info

  • André Roncaglia de Carvalho

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The paper analyzes some of the structural causes of inflationary persistence in Brazil in the post-Real plan period, in contrast to the Brazilian Central Bank’s view on the causes of inflation, particularly in what concerns its inertial component. It begins with a historical perspective on the convergence of stabilization theory to the so-called “macroeconomic consensus” and the understanding of inflation by this approach. We make the case that inflation can be better understood in its root causes only if the terms of distributional conflict and inter-sectoral dynamics are considered, which include the structural changes undergone by the Brazilian economy after the Real plan. Two primary pressures are therefore analyzed, namely: (i) the increase in the tertiary sector´s share of total value added in aggregate output combined with (ii) an intensive policy of income distribution. The interplay of supply and demand forces in a widely-indexed economic environment paints a more detailed picture of the current challenges faced by the ongoing monetary policy regime in Brazil than the one found in new Keynesian models.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.fea.usp.br/feaecon/RePEc/documentos/AndreRoncagliaCarvalho25WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) in its series Working Papers, Department of Economics with number 2013_25.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 20 Dec 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2013wpecon25

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 908 - CEP 05508-900 São Paulo - SP
    Phone: +55-11-3091-5944
    Fax: +55-11-3091-6013
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.fea.usp.br/feaecon/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Email:

    Related research

    Keywords: inflation inertia; structural change; conflicting claims; Real plan; Brazil;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2007. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 129, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
      • Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, 2012. "The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 12/62, International Monetary Fund.
    4. M. Woodford., 2010. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
    5. Durevall, Dick, 1999. "Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 407-421, December.
    6. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    7. Dante Aldrighi & Renato P. Colistete, 2013. "Industrial Growth and Structural Change: Brazil in a Long-Run Perspective," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) 2013_10, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    9. Ana Katarina Campêlo & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2003. "Inflation Inertia and Inliers: The Case of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), pages 713-739, October.
    10. John McCombie & Maureen Pike, 2013. "N o End to the Consensus in Macroeconomic Theory? A Methodological Inquiry," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 497-528, 04.
    11. Nelson Barbosa-Filho, 2008. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: 1999-2006," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 187-200.
    12. Robert Rowthorn & Ramana Ramaswamy, 1999. "Growth, Trade, and Deindustrialization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 2.
    13. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 47-68, Fall.
    14. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Wage indexation and macroeconomics stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 107-147, January.
    15. Francisco Cribari-Neto & Keila M. Cassiano, 2005. "Uma Análise da Dinâmica Inflacionária Brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 59(4), pages 535-566, October.
    16. Teichman, Judith, 2008. "Redistributive Conflict and Social Policy in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 446-460, March.
    17. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2011. "Not Going Away? Microfoundations in the Making of a New Consensus in Macroeconomics," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) 2011_02, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    18. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2013wpecon25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pedro Garcia Duarte).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.