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The Impact of Aging on Future Healthcare Expenditure

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Author Info
Lukas Steinmann () (Swiss Re, Zurich)
Harry Telser () (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)
Peter Zweifel () (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich)
Abstract

The impact of aging on healthcare expenditure (HCE) has been at the center of a prolonged debate. This paper purports to shed light on several issues. First, it presents new evidence on the relative importance of the two components of HCE that have been distinguished by Zweifel, Felder and Meier (1999), viz. the cost of morbidity and the cost of mortality (their "red herring" hypothesis claims that neglecting the mortality component results in excessive estimates of future growth of HCE). Second, it takes account of recent evidence suggesting that HCE does increase life expectancy, implying that time-to-death is an endogenous determinant of HCE. Third, it investigates the contribution of population aging to the future growth of HCE. For the case of Switzerland, it finds this contribution to be relatively small regardless of whether or not the cost of dying is accounted for, thus qualifying the "red herring" hypothesis.

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File URL: http://www.soi.uzh.ch/research/wp/2005/wp0510.pdf
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File Function: Revised version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute in its series Working Papers with number 0510.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Publication status: Published in Forum for Health Economics and Policy 10(2), Article 1, 2007
Handle: RePEc:soz:wpaper:0510

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Related research
Keywords: Health econometrics; Aging; Cost of dying; Healthcare expenditure;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production

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    Other versions:
  2. Adrian Bruhin & Thomas Epper, 2007. "Risk and Rationality: Uncovering Heterogeneity in Probability Distortion," Working Papers 0705, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  4. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "A Product-Market Theory of Industry-Specific Training," Working Papers 0610, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Philippe Mahler & Rainer Winkelmann, 2005. "Single Motherhood and (Un)Equal EducationalOpportunities: Evidence for Germany," Working Papers 0512, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hans Gersbach & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment and R&D offshoring," Working Papers 0606, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Rafael Lalive & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "Entry in liberalized railway markets: The German experience," Working Papers 0609, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Stefan Boes & Markus Lipp & Rainer Winkelmann, 2005. "Money Illusion Under Test," Working Papers 0514, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  11. Sandra Hanslin & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "The Apple Falls Increasingly Far: Parent-Child Correlation in Schooling and the Growth of Post-Secondary Education in Switzerland," Working Papers 0603, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Stefan Boes & Rainer Winkelmann, 2006. "The Effect of Income on Positive and Negative Subjective Well-Being," Working Papers 0605, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Thomas Borek & Stefan Buehler & Armin Schmutzler, 2004. "Mergers under Asymmetric Information – Is there a Lemons Problem?," Working Papers 0408, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  16. Yves Schneider & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "Spatial Effects in Willingness-to-Pay: The Case of Two Nuclear Risks," Working Papers 0502, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute, revised Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
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